2013 MLB Draft: Final Compilation Board

Wednesday, June 5, 2013
By: Ben Embry

Full disclosure: I am not a scout. I only know what I read. This compilation is based purely on 6 services that I trust the most: Baseball America, Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel, Big League Futures, Chris Crawford and Jonathan Mayo. I have no opinion in it beyond the writers I chose as inputs. Naturally, I have favorite prospects the same as anyone else, but that favoritism had no impact on this board. In previous additions I served as a tiebreak but I removed myself from the equation and let the inputs speak for themselves.

As a reminder, here's a description of the board: I've taken six highly respected scouts and entered their rankings of the top 2013 draft prospects at four different intervals over the past 8 months. Call it consensus building. I've weighted heavily (like 99.4%) towards the most recent inputs. There's no weighting between writers; I used to weight them but I've chopped it down from 15 to 6 really strong writers so the weighting is no longer called for.

This board has evolved quite a bit over the past 12 months and I'm quite proud of it, even while I fully admit to it having no opinion of my own. In fact, that's one of the elements I'm most proud of because there's no bias or BS from the creator here. I am merely a packager and conveyor of scouting analysis. If anything, my expertise is in the compilation and presentation of data, not the evaluation of talent. Hopefully readers will find it to be a useful draft day tool as I do. Ok, here's the board (with my thoughts on the results to follow):

Rnk	Name	Pos	School
1	Mark Appel	SP	Stanford
2	Jonathan Gray	SP	Oklahoma
3	Kris Bryant	3B	San Diego
4	Clint Frazier	OF	H.S.
5	Kohl Stewart	SP	H.S.
6	Colin Moran	3B	UNC
7	Austin Meadows	OF	H.S.
8	Braden Shipley	SP	Nevada
9	Trey Ball	P/OF	H.S.
10	Reese McGuire	C	H.S.
11	Dominic Smith	1B	H.S.
12	Hunter Renfroe	OF	Miss St.
13	JP Crawford	SS	H.S.
14	Ryne Stanek	SP	Arkansas
15	Sean Manaea	SP	Ind St
16	DJ Peterson	1B	New Mex
17	Austin Wilson	OF	Stanford
18	Alex Gonzalez	SP	Oral Rob
19	Nick Ciuffo	C	H.S.
20	Marco Gonzales	SP	Gonzaga
21	Jonathan Denney	C	H.S.
22	Aaron Judge	OF	Fresno St
23	Hunter Harvey	SP	H.S.
24	Phil Bickford	SP	H.S.
25	Eric Jagielo	3B/OF	N Dame
26	Billy McKinney	OF	H.S.
27	Chris Anderson	SP	Jack'ville
28	Ian Clarkin	SP	H.S.
29	Rob Kaminsky	SP	H.S.
30	Tim Anderson	SS	East C CC
31	Kyle Serrano	SP	H.S.
32	Jonathon Crawford	SP	Florida
33	Phillip Ervin	OF	Samford
34	Andrew Thurman	SP	UC Irvine
35	Connor Jones	SP	H.S.
36	Aaron Blair	SP	Marshall
37	Matt Krook	SP	H.S.
38	Ryan Boldt	OF	H.S.
39	Alex Balog	SP	San Fran.
40	Ryan Eades	SP	LSU
41	Hunter Dozier	3B	SF Austin
42	Hunter Green	SP	H.S.
43	Josh Hart	OF	H.S.
44	Andrew Mitchell	SP	TCU
45	Jason Hursh	SP	Okl St.
46	Bobby Wahl	SP	Ole Miss
47	Dustin Peterson	3B	H.S.
48	Michael Lorenzen	OF/RP	CS Fuler.
49	Travis DeMerritte	3B	H.S.
50	Devin Williams	SP	H.S.
51	Tom Windle	SP	Minn.
52	Blake Taylor	SP	H.S.
53	Kevin Ziomek	SP	Vandy
54	Trevor Williams	SP	Arz St.
55	Cord Sandberg	OF	H.S.
56	Chad Pinder	SS	Va. Tech
57	Jacob Brentz	SP	H.S.
58	Garrett Williams	SP	H.S.
59	Jordan Paroubeck	OF	H.S.
60	Cavan Biggio	3B/2B	H.S.
61	Oscar Mercado	SS	H.S.
62	Andrew Knapp	C	California
63	Ryan McMahon	3B	H.S.
64	Chris Okey	C	H.S.
65	Riley Unroe	SS	H.S.
66	Teddy Stankiewicz	SP	JUCO
67	Kent Emanuel	SP	UNC
68	Jared King	OF	K State
69	Cody Reed	SP	JUCO
70	Myles Smith	P	Lee
71	Dillon Overton	SP	Oklahoma
72	Andy McGuire	SS	H.S.
73	Michael O'Neill	OF	Michigan
74	Clinton Hollon	SP	H.S.
75	Wil Crowe	SP	H.S.
76	JaCoby Jones	2B/OF	LSU
77	Dustin Driver	SP	H.S.
78	Colby Suggs	RP	Arkansas
79	Trey Masek	SP	Tex Tech
80	Corey Knebel	RP	Texas
81	Scott Frazier	SP	Pepper.
82	Garrett Hampson	2B	H.S.
83	Matt McPhearson	OF	H.S.
84	Justin Williams	OF	H.S.
85	Christian Arroyo	SS	H.S.
86	Stephen Wrenn	OF	H.S.
87	Carlos Salazar	SP	H.S.
88	AJ Vanegas	RP	Stanford
89	Stuart Turner	C	Ole Miss
90	Rob Zastryzny	P	Missouri
91	Zach Collins	1B/C	H.S.
92	Trey Michalczewski	3B	H.S.
93	Tucker Neuhaus	SS	H.S.
94	Andrew Church	SP	H.S.
95	Rowdy Tellez	1B	H.S.
96	Jan Hernandez	SS	H.S.
97	AJ Puk	SP	H.S.
98	Dom Nunez	C	H.S.
99	Chandler Eden	SP	H.S.
100	Mason Smith	OF	H.S.
101	Tyler Danish	SP/3B	H.S.
102	Tyler Skulina	P	Kent St
103	Tyler O'Neill	C	H.S.
104	Victor Caratini	3B	JUCO
105	John Sternagel	3B	H.S.
106	Chris Rivera	SS	H.S.
107	Ivan Wilson	OF	H.S.
108	Zane Evans	C	Ga Tech
109	Cal Quantrill	P	H.S.
110	Drew Ward	1B	H.S.
111	Terry McClure	OF	H.S.
112	Jordan Sheffield	SP	H.S.
113	Robert Tyler	SP	H.S.
114	Brett Morales	SP	H.S.
115	Cody Bellinger	1B	H.S.
116	Buck Farmer	SP	Ga Tech
117	Daniel Gibson	P	Florida
118	Sean Brady	SP	H.S.
119	Nick Eicholtz	SP	H.S.
120	Jake Sweaney	C	H.S.
121	Sam Moll	SP	Memphis
122	Stephen Tarpley	SP	JUCO
123	Jake Johansen	SP	H.S.
124	Matt Oberste	1B	Oklahoma
125	Jonah Wesely	SP	H.S.
126	Akeem Bostick	SP	H.S.
127	Jeremy Martinez	C	H.S.
128	Cory Thompson	SS	H.S.
129	Dan Slania	RP	N Dame
130	Jimmie Sherfy	P	Oregon
131	Adam Plutko	SP	UCLA
132	Aaron Brown	RP	Pepper.
133	Michael Wagner	RP	San Diego
134	Alec Hansen	SP	H.S.
135	Stephen Gonsalves	SP	H.S.
136	Ryon Healy	1B	Oregon
137	Brian Ragira	1B	Stanford
138	Kyle Crockett	P	Virginia
139	Thomas Milone	SS	H.S.
140	Austin Kubitza	SP	Rice
141	Dylan Covey	SP	San Diego
142	Matt Boyd	SP	Ore St.
143	John Riley	C	H.S.
144	Nick Longhi	OF	H.S.
145	Dace Kime	P	Louisville
146	Casey Shane	SP	H.S.
147	Kyle Finnegan	SP	Texas St
148	Trevor Clifton	SP	H.S.
149	Trae Arbet	SS	H.S.
150	Chris Kohler	SP	H.S.
151	William Abreu	OF	H.S.
152	Nic Pivetta	P	JUCO
153	Corey Littrell	SP	Kentucky
154	Ben Lively	P	Cent Fla
155	Casey Meisner	SP	H.S.
156	Brandon Bixler	SP	Fla GCU
157	JB Woodman	OF	H.S.
158	Thomas Hatch	SP	H.S.
159	Logan Shore	SP	H.S.
160	Tony Rizzotti	RP	Tulane
161	Johneshwy Fargas	OF	H.S.
162	JD Underwood	P	JUCO
163	Daniel Palka	OF/SP	Ga Tech
164	Jake Bauers	1B	H.S.
165	Jacob Nottingham	C	H.S.
166	DJ Snelten	SP	Minn.
167	Trey Williams	3B	JUCO
168	Austin Nicely	SP	H.S.
169	Brian Navarreto	C	H.S.
170	Karsten Whitson	SP	Florida
171	Zach Farmer	SP	H.S.
172	Konner Wade	SP	Arizona
173	Jacob May	OF	Coast Car
174	Corey Ray	OF	H.S.
175	Eric Laurer	SP	H.S.
176	Andrew Dunlap	SP	H.S.
177	Barrett Astin	RP	Arkansas
178	Kevin Davis	SP	H.S.
179	Ty Young	3B	Louisville
180	Dane McFarland	SP	H.S.
181	Keegan Thompson	SP	H.S.
182	Mike Mayers	S	Ole Miss
183	Colin Bray	OF	Faulkner
184	Ryan Cordell	OF	Liberty
185	Ben Wetzler	SP	Ore St.
186	John Simms	RP	Rice
187	Conrad Gregor	1B	Vandy
188	Chris Oakley	SP	H.S.
189	Derick Beauprez	SP	H.S.
190	Josh Dezse	RP/1B	Ohio St

These are based on the rankings as of 6/5/2013 at 5:00pm. If they get changed between now and the draft...oh well! I'm not changing it again! I've spent an insane amount of hours configuring this thing and entering rankings/mocks and going forward (2014 and beyond) I've set it up where it will take significantly less time. I'll still do it because I love it and I think I'm onto something but its not worth the hours it's taken of my life going forward.

Mark Appel has been on top of draft rankings since the day last Summer he announced he would return to Stanford.  In the Fall there was a group of other players who jockeyed for a shot at overtaking him, (Manaea, Clint Frazier, Meadows, Stanek) but he's always pretty much been the guy.  Even in the Spring, as Gray was regularly popping 100 and Bryant was on his way to a 31 HR season, Appel stayed atop the mountain.

The Yankees have been linked to a dozen or more players seemingly since the end of April.  That's understandable given their position in the draft.  There wasn't much of a common thread connecting them so getting a sense of which way the Yankees would go has been really difficult.  They could go young or old, pitching or hitting.  It's really up in the air.  And honestly that's the way it should be.

New York is in an incredible position right now.  They have the flexibility to take 3 good, back of the first round talents or they can grab a top of the first round talent who is sliding due to high bonus demands.  The Yankees have almost $5.2 million worth of picks at the end of the first.  I would venture to guess that, if they so choose, they could pick someone with demands as high as $5 million and meet those demands if they think he's worth it.  That would include all but 2 or 3 guys.

To me the draft rankings and how they could predict where players will go is akin to fantasy baseball. You have rankings that say "player x is the 60th best player available" and you're like "Sweet! He should be available when I pick 54th"; well, not necessarily. For instance, I have Riley Unroe ranked 65th, but I'm hearing late 1st rd buzz so he could actually go a lot sooner than where he's ranked. Or a lot later, for that matter.

Depending on how things shake out, the team's top 10 prospect list will probably only increase by 1-2 names. And they're only like to add 1 new top 100 overall prospect, if any. Reason being is, despite having 3 1st rd picks, they're all at the back. Take last year as an illustration. Yankees took Ty Hensley with the 30th pick and where we were drafting that was pretty good value. So at the end of the year Ty made pretty much all of the system top 10 lists. But mostly he was towards the bottom (7-10 range basically). So carry that forward, the players we're likely to get at 26, 32, 33 are likely to be in this same 7-10 range and in that case there will only be room for 1-2 of them. And regarding top 100, again lets look at the Hensley example. Ty didn't make any of the lists that I saw. And on BA, he received not one single vote, (which I found egregious and got Jim Callis to agree with me on twitter that he deserved at least one vote). But thinking about it logically, no one in the baseball writing industry will add 26+ recent draftees to their top 100 list, so if NYY is going o get anyone that caliber, it's going to be because of the off chance that someone from the top 12 or so players slid for some reason.

Here are some players I like that are floating around the Yankees picks through round 4:

1st Rd.	Billy McKinney
1st Rd.	Rob Kaminsky
1st Rd.	Jordan Paroubeck
2nd Rd.	Mason Smith
3rd Rd.	Jonah Wesely
4th Rd.	Willie Abreu

There's a lot of HS OF on that list, so I'm not necessarily saying I'd like for the Yankees to draft 4 HS OF with their first 6 picks.  I'm just saying I think, for where they're ranked, these are some great players that I hope the Yankees are looking at.

As I've tweeted a couple dozen times, I'll be pulling for Stanek to fall to the 26th pick.  Call it a unique blend of homerism that is 1 part Yankee fan, 1 part Razorback fan.  It's unlikely to happen, I know, but a part of the fun of watching is hoping someone miraculously falls in your team's lap.  He's been projected to go in that mid-first round range and any disruption or chaos prior to that could cause him to slide.  I'll be crossing my fingers until his name gets called.

Ok, so I'll be tweeting like a mad man tomorrow night and on Friday I'll have a recap with scores for how the teams did in the first 2 rounds, (set up a little scoring system).  Follow me at @thebronxempire for all of my tweets.

Where Are They Now? Yankee Unsigned Draftees

Saturday, June 1, 2013
By: Ben Embry

The MLB Draft is just five days away and I'll have a couple articles as a preview, starting with this one.  Early in the week I'll update my compilation rankings for one final time.  Then following the draft I'll have an article reviewing the picks.

One facet of the draft is players that decide not to sign.  I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at the past few drafts and check in with 6 kids that declined to sign with New York.  Some of the kids turned out well, and some not so much...

Ty Moore (2012 Draft - 25th Round - pick 787)
Ty Moore was an OF from baseball (and sports in general, actually) powerhouse, Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, California.  Ty was the 246th ranked prospect in the Baseball America Top 500.  He was an USA Today All-American and named California's State Player of the Year, which is impressive considering Lucas Giolito and Max Fried were also from Cali.  Ty was known going into the draft as a tough sign, explaining why he lasted until the 25th round and the 787th pick.  The OF was known for having a solid bat but lacking in speed.

He followed through on his UCLA commitment and appeared in 27 games for the Bruins, starting in 19.  Ty struggled at the plate, going 15 for 72, (.208 BA), with .292 OBP and .293 SLG, (.585 OPS).  The Bruins went 40-17 during the season and hosted a regional in the NCAA Tournament.  He has two seasons to recuperate his draft stock, which has surely taken a serious hit with that line.  A bat-first, undersized OF (he was listed as 5'11" last June), will need to exhibit better hit and power tools than his 2013 slash line would indicate.


DJ Stewart (2012 Draft - 28th Round - pick 877)
DJ Stewart was another high school OF taken in the late rounds by the Yankees.  Like Moore, DJ was known to have a strong commitment to go to school, with DJ committed to attend Florida State.  He was a 2 sport star, (baseball and football), at the Bolles High School in Jacksonville, Florida.  He had a stalky, solid frame standing at 6' and weighing in at 215 lbs, which sounded more like a fullback body than an OF body.  That being said, he was known to be a good athlete with a strong arm and a good power bat.

At Florida State, DJ started in 56 of the 60 games the Seminoles played.  Florida State played extremely well, finishing the season in the top 10.  On top of hosting a regional, the team was the number 7 national seed which put them in line for a super regional, (at the time of this writing there's only been 1 regional game played), if they win their regional.  DJ had a much stronger year than Moore statistically; he hit .356/.458/.543 with 4 home runs and 58 RBIs.  He was always on base!  Going forward there will be knocks against his body but if he can continue to perform at this level, he'll make a lot of top 100 lists when he's eligible for the draft again in 2015.


Vincent Jackson (2012 Draft - 23rd Round - pick 727)
Vincent Jackson is the third OF from the 2012 draft for us to look at, and going into that draft he was considered by Baseball America to be the best of the three.  BA ranked Vincent the number 174 prospect for the draft, which is a pretty strong ranking.  Vincent stood 6'4" and weighed 190 lbs going into the draft.  The Georgia OF had crazy athleticism with the possibility of sticking in CF, but long term probably RF, (his strong arm making him a RF instead of a LF).

Unlike Stewart and Moore, Jackson's team, the Tennessee Volunteers, failed to make the NCAA tournament.  In fact, the team did so poorly they didn't even make the SEC tournament, which is pretty staggering considering all but 2 of the 14 teams in the league was invited to the tournament.  Vincent performed ok for UT; he hit .290/.317/.426 with 2 HRs and 15 RBIs in 155 AB and 43 games, (he started 38 games).  He's definitely going to need to exhibit more power than this, but he seems comparable to 2013 draftee Austin Wilson physically and athletically.  I actually was able to watch Jackson play against the Razorbacks last month and I was really impressed with his fielding.  This guy was catching everything hit to his field.  I am hoping he will be on New York's radar in 2015.


Sam Stafford (2011 Draft - 2nd Round - pick 88)
LHP Sam Stafford was considered quite a reach when New York took him with the 88th pick in the 2011 draft.  Baseball America hadn't even listed him in the Top 200 prospects for the draft.  He wasn't even in Texas's weekend rotation, though not because he lacks stuff. The 6'4" lefty had exhibited good velocity (96 mph) on his fastball and a passable curve, though  his control was a real problem.  He had been drafted once previously by the red sox in the 2008 draft.  Most writers saw him as a reliever long-term.

Now like the others on this list, Stafford declined and went back to school.  And in the 2013 draft, New York passed on Stafford and it was actually the Texas Rangers that selected the Longhorn, in the 13th round with the 426th pick.  Sam was not rated heading into the draft due to an injured shoulder and missed season.  He's playing for the Rangers' A- affiliate Hickory, which is not great considering he's 23 years old.  Further he has an ERA of 9.00 and 2.47 WHIP which are both pretty terrible, (to his credit, his K/9 is a pretty solid 8.05).  I think the Yankees and their fans should feel relieved they didn't sign the Longhorn lefty.  The egregious part is that they wasted the 88th pick of the draft on someone who wasn't considered worth it going in and has performed pretty poorly (when he wasn't injured) ever since.


Travis Dean (2010 Draft - 14th Round - pick 445)
New York signed the first thirteen players it selected in the 2010 draft, which was a pretty effective draft for the team.  Three of the team's best farm hands were taken in that draft: Mason Williams, Angelo Gumbs, and Tyler Austin.  The highest drafted player that went unsigned that year was Travis Dean, a 6'6" RHP from Boston, Massachussetts.  Travis played travel ball for Yankee area scout Matt Hyde and was reportedly showing a 94 MPH heater.  His 6'6" frame was very projectable going into the draft.

Despite the connection to the team, Dean honored his commitment to Kennesaw State.  In 2011 he started in five of the six games he appeared in for the Owls to pitch a total of 23.2 innings and finished the season with an ERA of 4.94.  In 2012 Travis made six starts for the Owls, none bigger than his dominating performance on May 26 versus Florida Gulf Coast in the elimination game on Championship Saturday in the A-Sun tournament.  He ended the season with a 5.60 ERA and a 4-1 record, pitching 27.1 innings, allowing 28 hits, 17 runs, 10 walks, 13 strikeouts and was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 22nd Round on the 2012 MLB Draft, (neglected to sign).  This year his ERA dropped slightly to 5.03 where he started 13 games for KSU.  He is eligible for this year's draft though he is not included in the BA Top 500.

Jonathan Gray (2011 Draft - 10th Round - pick 329)
I had to save the best (and most heartbreaking) for last.  Yes, the guy projected as a top 2-3 pick in this coming draft was once selected by the Yankees.  Anyone familiar with my twitter feed would know how much I've bemoaned this missed opportunity.  Gray would undoubtedly be our top pitching prospect and second overall behind Gary Sanchez.  Jon Heyman reported in April that the Yankees offered the RHP who was pitching for Eastern Oklahoma State JC at the time a $500,000 bonus, which was a pretty fair offer for a 10th round pick.  Well, Gray made a wise decision because he's in line to earn over 10x that much after just two years.  That's quite the investment...

Jonathan has dominated Sooners opponents all year with a stellar 10-2 record,  1.59 ERA, .84 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9.  He's reportedly hitting 100 early, late, and often for the Sooners.  Very Verlander-esque.  Baseball America and Big League Futures both have Gray as their top overall pick, though the consensus has Mark Appel as slightly better because he has a better build and longer track record.  Gray's proponents like him for his crazy heat and wipeout slider.  Either way, they're both projectable aces and neither one will make it to the Yanks at 26th...though Gray could have been.

The Future of Phil Hughes

Sunday, May 19th, 2013
By: Ben Embry

Last Wednesday, with only two out in the first and the visiting Mariners already up 7 runs, Yankee manager Joe Girardi walked out to the mound to relieve starter Phil Hughes of his duties.  Girardi had a look of conciliation, Hughes with the look of befuddlement and acknowledgement.  Lasting roughly 6.1 fewer innings than desired, Hughes handed the ball to the manager and walked slowly to the dugout, clearly disappointed.  Seven runs, all earned...this would NOT help his ERA, I thought.

The 26-year-old starter, once bestowed the moniker "The Phranchise", is approaching a major intersection in his career and his life.  The player ranked #4 overall prospect in 2006 by Baseball America never approached the stardom expected of him, yet clearly has a place in this league.  This offseason, at the age of 27, he will sign a long term deal with some team...the question is what team and how much?  And further, if it is not with the Yankees, what impact will it have on the team that drafted him out of high school and developed him?

His most successful big league season came arguably in 2009, the year the Yankees won their 27th world championship, when he made 44 appearances as a reliever.  He was an over-powering set-up man for Mariano Rivera, making quick work of batters with that deadly fastball-curveball combination.  It seemed like he was retiring the side in order in mere seconds he was so dominant.  And in the beginning of 2010 he moved to the rotation and earned an All-Star appearance but by the end of the season he sported a pedestrian 4.19 ERA.  Now we're 2+ seasons past his lone All-Star year and it seems like a distant memory.  ERAs for 2011 and 2012 were 5.79 and 4.23, respectively and as of the time of this blog his ERA for 2013 is 5.88.  His career ERA is a robust 4.48.

All of the talk of extensions for Robinson Cano have overshadowed the impending free agency of Hughes.  He's one of several quality but not overwhelming free agent pitchers, including Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza and Dan Haren.  There's no Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez, (thanks to recent big money extensions) or Clayton Kershaw, (he's coming in 2015) so there's not an obvious "priority guy" who will gobble up serious bucks and take one potential suitor out of the mix for Phil.  But when you compare Phil to these guys statistically, he still falls short in virtually every way.  See table:

Name	Age	Career ERA	Career WAR	Last 3+ ERA	Last 3+ WAR
Phil Hughes	27	4.48	9.9	4.60	5.8
Tim Lincecum	29	3.37	27	3.79	9.4
Jon Lester	29	3.71	26.8	3.75	13.9
Josh Johnson	29	3.23	21.4	3.04	11.3
Matt Garza	30	3.84	15.7	3.68	7.5
Dan Haren	33	3.69	37.7	3.82	12.3
Roy Halladay	36	3.37	67.9	3.20	16
Average	30.4	3.67	29.5	3.70	10.9
Median	29	3.69	26.8	3.75	11.3

When you break this group down statistically, there's no doubt who comes out "on bottom".  It's Phil Hughes.  But if you drill down and look at each other counterpart, they all have warts.  Lincecum and Haren have fallen off the map in terms of effectiveness.  Johnson, Garza, and Halladay all have serious injury issues.  And Lester, though seemingly a "good guy", was also at the center of the Red Sox locker room implosion that led to the ouster of Terry Francona.  So while he hasn't performed as well as his comps historically, his future isn't as murky, either.  And let's not forget the one area that he's favored in, though it's an important one: age.  He's at least 2 years younger than all of his other free agent counterparts.

One other factor in Hughes's favor is that he's performed in the AL East and the scrutiny of playing in the New York market. So his numbers are likely to improve if he were to move to the NL or even to the AL Central where the divisional line-ups are not so fierce. And if I'm Yankees management, I like that Hughes has proven to be able to handle the NY market. Taking his somewhat weak numbers into account, at least there's potentially no concern that he'll perform worse once playing in the tough New York market. It's one of those "better the devil you know than the devil you don't" situations.

Two guys with comparable situations heading into their free agency offseason were Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse from 2012.  Edwin Jackson was 29 when he signed with the Cubs for 4 years / $52 million.  He had won more games than Phil and compiled more WAR over his last 4 seasons, but Phil had better strike out rates and lower WHIP.  See below for a breakdown:

	Hughes	Jackson	Advantage
Career ERA	4.48	4.40	Jackson	0.08
Career K/9	7.61	6.88	Hughes	0.73
Career WHIP	1.31	1.40	Hughes	0.09
Career WAR	9.9	15.8	Jackson	5.90
Career Wins	54	70	Jackson	16.00
Last 4 ERA	4.60	3.98	Jackson	0.62
Last 4 K/9	8.40	7.29	Hughes	1.11
Last 4 WHIP	1.32	1.35	Hughes	0.04
Last 4 WAR	5.8	9.9	Jackson	4.10

So the 4 years and $13 million per year AAV serves as a decent baseline.  You may shave $1 million off the AAV because WAR and ERA for Hughes are worse but you could also add a year because he's younger.  So maybe Phil's a 5 years and $12 million per year guy.  Now in regards to Lohse, I included him because he had the added factor of having been offered a qualifying contract by St. Louis, meaning he had the loss of a first round pick tagged to him for whoever eventually signed him.  That's something Phil could possibly face this winter, (more on that later).  Ok, let's look at Lohse:

	Hughes	Lohse	Advantage
Career ERA	4.48	4.45	Lohse	0.03
Career K/9	7.61	5.63	Hughes	1.98
Career WHIP	1.31	1.40	Hughes	0.09
Career WAR	9.9	23.8	Lohse	13.90
Career Wins	54	118	Lohse	64.00
Last 4 ERA	4.60	3.94	Lohse	0.66
Last 4 K/9	8.40	5.70	Hughes	2.70
Last 4 WHIP	1.32	1.27	Lohse	0.04
Last 4 WAR	5.8	7	Lohse	1.20

Career comparisons, at least in terms of the WAR and wins, are tough because Lohse pitched 11 seasons heading into his FA compared to Phil's 6+ at this point.  But the rates are fair game.  Similarly to that of Jackson, Lohse has superior ERA but Hughes strikes out more and has a better WHIP over his career, (though Lohse had really improved on WHIP his last 4 seasons and was slightly better than Phil in that regard).  Now Lohse signed for 3 years and $33 million total, ($11 million AAV for the mathematically challenged).  Lohse's age was as much as a factor as the quallifying offer; he was 34 last winter.  So again, Hughes's age is a check in his column.  When compared to Lohse's and Jackson's deals, I think Phil could fairly expect 5 years and $55 million, ($11 million AAV).

With all of this information, what would I decide to do if I were the Yankees GM?  For one, I hold him until the end of the season.  As of this moment, New York is leading Boston by 1 game in the division and is just 1 game behind Texas for best record in the AL.  so they're not going to be in selling mode this summer.  And at the end of the season I would make him a qualifying offer of roughly $14 million.  Now remember I said earlier I think $11 million is a fair AAV for Hughes, which is less than the $14 million.  As the Yankees general manager, the qualifying offer is a win-win situation.  If he accepts the offer, I'm only paying him $3 million more than I think he's worth for the one season.  That's not much in the whole scheme of things.  And if he declines then I'm in line for a comp pick when he signs with someone else.  I would fully expect him to decline, because even though the quallifying offer is $3 million more for 2014, it's significantly less in terms of total guaranteed value he'll expect on the open market, which is the number that matters the most.  Now I would negotiate in earnest and I'd hope to get him for the 5 year $55 million price tag.  But if he goes another direction, I would take my comp pick and find another starter to sign and I'd be ok with that.

So in closing, Phil's future is relatively promising.  He's looking at a $50 million + contract this season, whether it's from New York or elsewhere.  I hope he sticks around honestly, because even though I'm a draftnik who covets draft picks like the Cookie Monster covets chocolate chip cookies, I've grown fond of the Phranchise, even if he hasn't been as philthy as we were originally expecting.