I've seen some talk on my twitter feed regarding the not-so-great state of New York's farm system, including what is the cause and what are the short and long term implications for the big league club. I really wanted to join the conversation but my opinion far exceeded twitter's 140 character limit. Before I give my opinion about what I perceive is New York's problematic farm system, let me provide some context.
Baseball writers are in a period that I like to refer to as "prospect season" in which several high profile writers and publications rank baseball's prospects and farm systems. Usually it's a lot of fun for me but this year, there's not a lot to say about Yankee prospects. Or I should say there's not a lot of good things to say about Yankee prospects. Almost all of our top prospects were injured last year or their development was simply stuck in neutral. Gary Sanchez is the only player to universally make the top 100 lists this year, and a few instances he was the only player to make the list. Other guys like Tyler Austin and Mason Williams appeared on a list or two but for the most part Sanchez was the lone Yankee. Also, Keith Law ranked NY's farm system 20th out of the 30 team league, and he was one who actually had three Yankees on his individual Top 100 list.
So right now New York has a farm system problem. And I call it a problem because this is a time where the Bombers could really use an infusion of major league ready youth. They are set to not only have the oldest roster in the majors this year, but the second oldest roster EVER behind the 2009 Phillies. Short, first, and second are being manned by Jeter, Teixeira, and newcomer Brian Roberts, all of which have missed significant amounts of time with injuries lately and their ability to play most of a season this year is far from certain. And another newcomer Kelly Johnson would ideally play a super-utility role backing up these guys but he is penciled in at 3B due to the season long suspension Alex Rodriguez received this winter. So this is a time when a club could really benefit from a kid in the minors ready to step in and carry the load for half a season or possibly the whole season. Well, sorry Yankee fans, the cupboard is bare, so get ready to see Brendan Ryan, Eduardo Nunez, and possibly Dean Anna play a lot more games than a championship-aspiring club would like for them to play.
The perceived reasons why the farm system is in its current state are numerous but, in my opinion, can be narrowed down to one simple fact: the fans of the New York Yankees have zero tolerance for losing. They simply demand excellence and championships year-in and year-out. The team is not allowed to go through the natural life cycle of a professional sports franchise, which is this:
Phase 1. be bad, and as a result get high draft picks;
Phase 2. draft the best possible talent with those picks, and as a result put a more talented team on the field;
Phase 3. win games and compete for championships with your more talented teams, and as a result get low draft picks;
Phase 4. draft less talented players with those picks, and as a result put a less talented team on the field and go back to phase 1.
Now, the duty of any franchise's front office is to maximize the amount of time you're in phase 3 and minimize the amount you're in phase 1. But Yankees fans demand the team simply stay in phase 3 and if they ever slip to phase 1, God help us all. "Fire everyone! Sign the best free agents! Trade for the best players in the league! Do it before the next season starts OR ELSE!" Our team's legacy and vast resources simply forbid this. If any fan base beleved it deserved championships...that they were OWED championships...it's us.
To be fair, ownership has spoiled us, engraining this idea within us. It's known as the (George) Steinbrenner Doctrine, named after the polarizing figure who owned the team for 37 years and held himself and the franchise to the highest of standards. "Win a championship or consider the season an utter failure." I really believe this mandate is counter-productive. It forces management to make decisions where the end-result may be to make today's team better but at the expense of the future. Keep passing the buck, we'll figure it out later. And the only option is to spend more and more money, which is unsustainable because contrary to popular opinion, the Steinbrenners do not have limitless resources. One day, the well will run dry and all of the problems they kept passing forward will crush the on-field product. An analogy could be made to our federal government, but I don't pretend to know as much about running a government as I pretend to know about running a professional sports team, so I'll let the analogy end there.
Heading into this offseason, we were in a good position to course correct this unsustainable model for one that was more reasonable and probably beneficial: approximately $100 million in yearly salaries came off the payroll, which would go a long way towards course correction. I wrote last October that if I owned the Yankees, I would slash payroll, divert the funds to player development, and also cut ticket prices and concession prices. Because if there is an validity to the fans' demand to win every year, it's due to the cost of attending games. Yankee tickets are the highest in the league, and if you pay the most you should expect a good product. But a good product can still be had if the team purged itself of its glutinous, cost INeffective contracts. The team would lose in the interim but they could collect draft picks and young talent and be back very soon, in my opinion. Because what I'm advocating is not falling back to the middle of the pack, spending -wise. I would suggest staying right below the luxury tax threshold, which still puts the team as a top 2 or 3 spender. The money saved from not paying the tax could also go into player development.
And, let me just add that as a personal preference, it's far more enjoyable to watch players that came up through your own system as opposed to someone else's that you just threw money at. Signing one big money free agent after another takes the fun and challenge out of building a team. That's why people hate us; not because we win but because we win with THEIR favorite players! And also there would be no awkwardness or mixed feelings around rooting for a guy who used to beat the snot out of your team playing for their rival. "I used to HATE this guy but now he's one of us (because we just gave him a ton of money) so yay!!"
The current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) really punishes teams who want to sign top free agents, which is having a three pronged effect on baseball economics in general. The first is that salary demands for the good but not elite free agents are being severly hamstrung because of the imposed loss of draft picks, (IF said free agent was issued a qualifying offer by their former team). The second is that elite players are re-signing with their current teams before they hit free agency in order to avoid the "hamstring effect" I just mentioned. This causes the free agent wells to dry up, so any team (like the Yankees) that live off of free agency to have slimmer pickings, so to speak. The third is that teams who bite the bullet and forfeit draft picks in order to sign someone they really want experience a deficit of young talent. The more qualifying free agents (QFA) you sign, the more talented your team is right now but the less talented your farm system is, which is the well for any successful franchise. It's all in the league's attempt to restrain and dissuade big spending (i.e. giving the owners' money to the players), and I believe it's affective.
In my opinion, if the Yankees implemented a strategy of only signing the truly elite QFA, who are worth the lost opportunity to select young prospects, and otherwise hoarded their draft picks to develop a farm system that could be counted on to supplement these few free agent signings. And if free agency is still the dry well I described in the previous paragraph, then you should have an abundance of valuable chips with which they can make a trade.
Now I don't believe for one second this will happen, and I'm ok with that. We'll continue to see big spending by the big league team and I'll just hope that I'm wrong, or that the league will change its CBA back to a system that encouraged spending on players, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
