Saturday, December 6, 2014

Andrew Miller: not just a LOOGY

by: Ben Embry

The Yankees reportedly signed LHP Andrew Miller to a 4 yr, $36M contract yesterday. New York's first big signing of the offseason, (sorry Chris Young), had been heavily rumored for at least a week.  I have to say I'm ok with the deal; don't love it but don't hate it. A 4 yr deal for a reliever is probably at least 1 year too long.  This is especially true considering he has no experience as a closer and isn't expected to be one for New York, (at least not in the traditional sense).  Still, I like the AAV of $9M and don't think this would be a huge albatross if he regresses this last year or two.

One thing I've preached this offseason is that New York needed depth and versatility instead of big money, high profile free agents. I feel like Miller gives them the former in the bullpen as a lefty that you can feel comfortable with facing righties.  He probably could close and the idea of him and RHP phenom Dellin Betances sharing the closer duties based on matchup is intriguing.  Having LHP Justin Wilson allows Manager Joe Girardi to save Miller for the 8th or 9th.  With LHP Jacob Lindgren the Yankees could have 3 LHP in the bullpen at some point this season with Miller and hopefully Lidgren being able to face righty batters.  It also doesn't hurt that Miller's experience primarily comes from pitching in the AL East.

What this means for David Robertson is interesting.  GM Brian Cashman has said this doesn't close the door on D-Rob returning. I believe that but probably makes it less likely. What it gives them is the leverage to let him walk, which I think they would prefer to signing him to a Papelbon-like contract.  And I think they'd like that compensatory draft pick when Robertson signs with someone else. It would give them an excuse for forfeiting their own 1st rd draft pick on someone like Max Scherzer, though that's not a line that I'm going to buy.  First rd draft picks are too valuable in this day and age, and saying "Hey don't worry about us losing the 18th draft pick because we still have that one that'll be in the low 30s" doesn't hold water for me.  Here's an idea: why not keep both?

Friday, December 5, 2014

Goodbye Greeney, hello DiDi

by: Ben Embry

According to several outlets, the Yankees traded 2014 rotation revelation Shane Greene for young Diamondback shortstop DiDi Gregorious. Greeney is actually going to Detroit as part of a 3 team trade, but for New York it's essentially a 1-for-1 swap. Greeney for DiDi.

This move answers the question: "Who follows Derek Jeter as the next Yankees shortstop?" My armchair analysis can be summed up this way: "Eh." Trading a 4th or 5th starter with 5 yrs of control for an average SS with 5 years of control doesn't get you real excited. The Yankees have been linked with Gregorious in trade rumors for at least a year makes me think NY genuinely likes Gregorious so there's that.

The implications are interesting. Jon Heyman tweeted this means NY will be looking to add 2 more starters this winter, which is a thought I had myself. To me, that makes the rumored possibility of signing Max Scherzer a little more likely.  I'm on record with my opposition to such a move, which isn't enough of an improvement to make NY a serious contender and thus not worth the draft pick or long term commitment.  It's essentially mortgaging the future to make the team only an above-average team as opposed to average.  If I can say anything in support of signing Scherzer, it's that if there's anyone worth forfeiting a draft pick this winter, it's the former Cy Young winner and legitimate ace.  Still, count me as a member of the "Don't sign Scherzer" camp.

Anyways, such a move is still a ways down the road and may never happen. What has happened is NY finally answered the question: "Who will be saddled with the unenviable task of trying to replace Derek Jeter?"  Congratulations DiDi! 

Thursday, December 4, 2014

2015 Compilation MLB Draft Board #1

by: Ben Embry

It's finally that time of year when I issue the first compilation ranking for the next MLB Draft.  It's a little thing I like to do to stay up on who the big names are in the draft pool.  What I do is take rankings from 5 different sources that I trust the most on the subject of draft prospects and I compile them into one board.  I'll publish links below that will have last year's boards if anyone's interested in seeing those.

Ok, here's the first 2015 board:

Rnk Name Pos School
1 Brendan Rodgers SS H.S.
2 Brady Aiken SP JUCO
3 Michael Matuella SP Duke
4 Walker Buehler SP Vandy
5 Kyle Funkhouser SP Louisville
6 Kolby Allard SP H.S.
7 Dansby Swanson SS Vandy
8 Nathan Kirby SP Virginia
9 Daz Cameron OF H.S.
10 Nick Plummer OF H.S.
11 Justin Hooper SP H.S.
12 Alex Bregman SS/2B LSU
13 Carson Fulmer SP Vandy
14 Ian Happ 2B/OF Cincinnati
15 Trenton Clark OF H.S.
16 Cody Ponce SP Cal Poly P
17 Kyle Cody SP Kentucky
18 Chris Betts C H.S.
19 Ashe Russell SP H.S.
20 Mike Nikorak SP H.S.
21 Phil Bickford SP JUCO
22 Jake Lemoine SP Houston
23 Riley Ferrell RP TCU
24 DJ Stewart OF Fla State
25 Richie Martin SS Florida
26 Alonzo Jones 2B/OF H.S.
27 Beau Burrows SP H.S.
28 Dillon Tate SP UC Santa B
29 Gio Brusa OF Pacific
30 Garrett Whitley OF H.S.
31 Kyle Tucker OF H.S.
32 Kyler Murray SS H.S.
33 Chris Shaw 1B Boston Col
34 Chandler Day SP H.S.
35 James Kaprielian SP UCLA
36 Tyler Jay RP Illinois
37 Demi Orimoloye OF H.S.
38 Austin Smith SP H.S.
39 Alex Young SP TCU
40 Luken Baker SP/1B H.S.
41 Ryan Cole McKay SP H.S.
42 Donny Everett SP H.S.
43 Cornelius Randolph 3B H.S.
44 Marcus Brakeman SP Stanford
45 Kyle Molnar SP H.S.
46 Joe McCarthy OF Virginia
47 Triston McKenzie SP H.S.
48 Kevin Newman SS Arizona
49 Greg Pickett OF H.S.
50 Steven Duggar OF Clemson
51 Juan Hillman SP H.S.
52 Jon Harris SP Mo. State
53 Joe DeMers SP H.S.
54 Andrew Suarez SP Miami
55 Cadyn Grenier SS H.S.
56 Mikey White SS Alabama
57 Kep Brown OF H.S.
58 Skye Bolt OF UNC
59 Tate Matheny OF Mo. State
60 Jahmai Jones 2B/OF H.S.
61 Nick Shumpert SS H.S.
62 Christian Stewart OF Tennessee
63 Bryce Denton OF/3B H.S.
64 Mitchell Hansen OF H.S.
65 Corey Zangari SP H.S.
66 Daniel Reyes OF H.S.
67 Garrett Wolforth C H.S.
68 Josh Staumont SP Azusa Pac.
69 Donnie Dewees OF UNF
70 Cole Sands SP H.S.
71 Cornelius Randolph 3B H.S.
72 Kyri Washington OF Longwood
73 Ryan Perez SP H.S.
74 Gray Fenter SP H.S.
75 Thomas Szapuski SP H.S.

It looks and sounds as if the top 3 players in this year's draft are HS SS Brendan Rodgers, JUCO LHP Brady Aiken, and Duke RHP Mike Matuella.  Rodgers is projected to hit for power and average from the right side of the plate and has the ability to stick at SS. Aiken is the 2014 #1 overall pick that would be an Astro right now were it not for concerns over an MRI revealed abnormalities in his pitching elbow; those results are controversial and may or may not scare other teams. Matuella is a bit of an unknown despite having played 2 years for an ACC school. He's 6'7 with a FB that runs 93-97 and has 2 above average to plus breaking balls and an average change so if he performs well this year he'll go early.

The Yankees currently have the 18th pick of the draft. That could go up if Miami, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Milwaukee, or Toronto sign a qualified free agent.  I wouldn't count on SD or TB signing a QFA but the others could. Or it's possible NY signs a QFA and their 1st rd pick disappears all together. If someone other than the Yankees sign David Robertson before the draft, they'll receive a compensatory pick to follow the first round, (probably in the low 30s after all of the QFA signings shake out). Or they could lose that two if they sign a second QFA.  SO MANY POSSIBILITIES!

A quick look at the board shows there's some college pitching in the neighborhood of New York's first pick. While I always want them to take the best player available, deep down I'd like to see a college starter taken early since starting pitching is the farm system's weakness in my opinion. They could go high schooler with upside with their comp pick.

My next comp board will likely be available in March after preliminary scouting reports will impact the inputs, (who are listed below), for my comp board. And if/when New York makes a significant signing this winter I'll weigh in with my thoughts on that.

Baseball America (Clint Longnecker - sub req'd)

ESPN.com (Keith Law and Chris Crawford - sub req'd)

Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel)

MLB.com (Jim Callis and Jon Mayo)

Draft to the Show (Chris Crawford)

 

Friday, November 28, 2014

It's Time for the Yankees to Pursue Cuban Talent

by: Ben Embry

Anyone who has read me consistently over the couple years that I've written this blog probably gets the sense that I'm pro-player development and anti-big money free agents.  I would say that is generally a true statement, in that I find developing players more interesting and challenging than simply being the highest bidder for players that were cultivated by other teams who, more times than not, couldn't afford said player once they hit free agency.  And I always find it difficult to lay down my prejudices against guys who have played for and been successful for other teams, (Jacoby Ellsbury being a prime example). Ultimately though I just want to see the team win a lot and to do that you have to have a blend of home grown and free agent talent.  If you think about building a team they way you build a house, I think of the farm system players as the house's foundation and frame and the free agents as the finish out.  So I accept Ellsbury and root for him, but he'll never be my favorite player.

Young Cuban, (as well as Japanese and Korean), talent sit at an interesting cross roads of these two ideas.  They're free agents when they first come to America and thusly go to the highest bidder, but they have not played in Major League Baseball previously and therefore have no team identity to fans; we don't have to lay down any existing contempt we have with them from when they played against us.  They've been playing professional baseball for several years but that was in their home country and not against us.

They differ from traditional free agents in two key ways. The first is they're generally younger.  Take a look at Keith Law's list of top free agents and most are 30-32. By contrast, OF Yasmany Tomas, who just signed with the Diamondbacks, is 24. Boston's new OF Rusney Castillo is 27. Jose Abreu was 27 when he signed with the White Sox.  Yoenis Cespedes was 26, Yasiel Puig was 21, Jorge Soler was 20.  So you're getting more of the prime of these players' careers. Secondly, you don't have to forfeit draft picks to sign them. All they cost is money.  Adding them to your team doesn't hinder the pipeline to your farm system. Some, like Soler and a couple of the players I'll mention later, add to it.

Cubans for the most part have enjoyed a lot of success. They come from a country with a rich baseball tradition and the professional leagues they played in are extremely competitive.  Major League teams such as the White Sox, the A's, and the Dodgers have benefited from prospecting talent from this rich gold mine.  Unfortunately, the Yankees have just barely dipped their toes in the water. The only player New York has signed from Cuba the past few years is Omar Luis, the 6' LHP who spent all of 2014 in low A Charleston. He's best known for the fairly substantial $4 million bonus but he has struggled to live up to it.

Some interesting players I'd like to see New York take a run at are:

The first and most talented is Yoan Moncada.  Scouts are raving about the 19 year old infielder according to several publications. Moncada is a true 5-tool player who could play 2B, 3B, or any any OF spot.  He's just 19 and would likely be in the running for the first overall pick in this year's draft if he were living in the US. He should consider himself fortunate that he's not because his bonus is likely to be $40 - $50 million as it stands now, where as if he were drafted he'd be subject to slotting that would restrict the bonus to $6 - $7 million. It's been said he's probably one of the top 10 prospects today.

To put it mildly, I am obsessed with the hope of New York signing Moncada.  They never get a chance at young players with this much talent. They always draft late and thus the best amateur talents are going to other teams.  July 2 IFAs are just 16 and are very raw.  They're not comparable to Moncada who has professional experience in Cuba.  He would immediately be their best prospect and likely be playing in the Bronx in a couple years or less.  Almost every team is thought to be in the running given the circumstances but Ben Badler at Baseball America considers New York one of the favorites due in part to them already being over their spending limit for this IFA signing period.  That makes me HAPPY.

Andy Ibanez is a 21 year old 2B who played for the Cuban national team in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.  He also played on the 16U World tournament team in 2009 and 18U team in 2010 so he has plenty of international experience. According to Badler he doesn't have a standout tool but is a Gold Glove defender in the Cuban league and is solid at the plate.  Badler recently ranked him the 8th best player in Cuba, which included players of all ages and experience, which is impressive given he's just 21.  To my knowledge he's not been linked to any teams specifically.

Yoan Lopez is a player that I'm just becoming aware of but am very intrigued by.  He's a 21 yr old RHP that uses a 4 pitch mix with a fastball that sits 93-95 and touches 100.  The track record, at least recently memory, is not great for pitchers coming off the island. Aroldis Chapman is the only successful Cuban pitcher that comes to mind recently.  Lopez is 6'4 and a lean 190 lbs, (kid needs to put on some weight, amirite?).  The Yankees, along with San Diego, San Francisco, and Arizona have expressed "strong" interest according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

Jose Fernandez, (not the Marlins pitcher), is an older player relative to the first 3 players I mentioned. At 26, he would not be subject to IFA spending pool.  He's a major league ready 2B that Keith Law ranked 14th best free agent this year. He would serve as an alternative option if New York fails/declines to sign Chase Headley and decides to play Martin Prado at 3B. Color me skeptical that the Yankees would feel comfortable going into Spring Training with the only two options for 2B being two rookies, (Pirela and Refsnyder), as has been floated about as a possibility. Fernandez at the very least could be more competition.

We'll see if New York winds up with any of these guys. I just hope they give them all serious consideration and in the case of Moncada, they need to go all out for him.  Damn the torpedoes boys!

On a different topic, next week I'll put out my first compilation rankings for the 2015 MLB Draft. As of right now, the Yankees have the 17th pick with the possibility of a compensatory 1st rd pick if David Robertson signs elsewhere prior to the draft.  It's early to say, but looks like there's some good pitching talent in the college ranks if they wanted to go in that direction, (I would very much support that idea).

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Yankees' Next Championship Window

by: Ben Embry

Hot Stove season is officially upon us folks. Boston apparently didn't care for finishing last in the division and went and signed 2 top hitters, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, from this year's free agent class.  Seeing as how pitching is clearly the teams weakness, I would expect them to sign a top free agent AND trade for someone else. They have an over abundance of talented OF and guys who can play on the left side of the infield.

The Red Sox' aggressive jump at the outset of the offseason has many Yankees fans wondering how the team will respond. Opinions vary wildly if my twitter feed is any indication.  Rumors abound that, prior to the Sandoval and Ramirez signings, New York was content to re-sign guys like Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy and avoid big ticket items like Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Jon Lester.  It's this fan's opinion that they should stick to that plan, (if that is indeed their plan) and instead focus on depth and position versatility. This is largely a continuation of last offseason's moves when they signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka.  That outlay of $438 million likely pushed management up to the limits of their budget, (as so far as New York has a budget).  Those players cost New York not only money but three 1st round draft picks, as well.  It was literally and figuratively a very costly winter and this fan wonders whether they want to go back to the well so quickly.

Let me throw out one more reason New York should avoid big ticket items this winter.  It's more of a macro-level, abstract concept... New York's championship window is closed right now.  There is no combination of moves, signings and/or trades, that could propel the roster to a point where you could reasonably expect to compete for the championship in 2015.  The roster is simply overloaded with players you cannot rely on to either play everyday and/or play at a championship level.  What will New York get from A-Rod? Will Beltran and Teixeira stay healthy? Can Sabathia take the ball 25+ times (and be competitive even when he does)? Will McCann come close to the production management expected when they gave him $85 million? Can Ellsbury play in 145+ games for a 2nd consecutive season for the first time since 2009?  Is Tanaka going to be fully bounced back from an injury that limited him to 20 starts?  Will Pineda give us more than 13 starts?  There's just too many questions on this team.  Something, (likely multiple somethings), are bound to blow up in a minefield such as this.  Any moves should be made with the intention of filling in around these guys that ownership has invested a lot of money in. And they collectively take up so much space on the roster that there's really only room for one or two more significant pieces. And one or two more significant pieces, no matter who they are, won't be enough to make this a contender.

So this question must be asked: why give Max Scherzer a 6-7 year deal when the last half of it will be for a player in decline and the team won't compete for a championship for at least the first year or two anyway?  THIS IS THE CRUX OF MY ARGUMENT.

So, with that hypothesis stated, when can Yankee fans expect for the championship window open?  Obviously if the current contracts on the books are an impediment, some will have to start disappearing to make room. The following table illustrates what I think are all significant contracts, (due to either size or the player being a valuable member of the team), and the year they expire:

Player AAV FA Yr
Sabathia $23.25M 2017
Teixeira $22.5M 2017
Beltran $15M 2017
Rodriguez $27.5M 2018
Gardner $13M 2019
Pineda * $.5M 2019
McCann $17M 2020
Tanaka ** $22.1M 2021
Betances * $.5M 2021
Ellsbury $21.9M 2022
* - pre-arbitration salaries
** - has opt out after 2017
 
The first three dead weight contracts don't come off the books until 2017. This would be the earliest that the window would be open in my opinion.  A-Rod's albatross of a contract will be on the books for one year after that.  I would not sign a player to a contract for more than 3 years until at least Tex, Sabathia, and Beltran are gone.

Another aspect that needs to be considered is when we could expect help from the farm system.  The next table is New York's top 10 prospects and the season I expect for them to arrive:

Player Arrival
Lindgren 2015
Refsnyder 2015
Severino 2016
Judge 2016
Sanchez 2016
Bird 2016
Jagielo 2017
Clarkin 2018
Torrens 2018
Mateo 2018

While I think New York will get contributions from a couple prospects in 2015, it's the following year that they could receive a real boost. Arguably the four best overall players in the system should all arrive in 2016.  I would target the offseason following 2016 as the year I try to open the window, (hoarding prospects and saving draft picks in the process).  Pineda will be under contract for 2 more years and Tanaka can opt out the following winter so already you're seeing the other side of the window and when it may close.

So, in conclusion, I would conserve resources, (i.e. money and draft picks), this offseason and the next in order to maximize the team's potential for 2017 and beyond.  That's easier said then done.  Certainly the team has had designs to do something similar in the past and eventually they caved to pressure from the fan base to compete now.  We'll see what happens.