Tuesday, October 7, 2014

2014 Post-season Yankees Farm System Rankings

by: Ben Embry

The Yankees have seen their farm system bounce back in 2014 after two consecutive years of regression.  Aaron Judge and Luis Severino took big steps forward and are consensus top 100 overall prospects.  Gary Sanchez continues to show promise, raw power that's rare for catchers.  Ian Clarkin could also find his way into some top 100 lists this winter.

Pitching still lags behind the hitting with only 3 of the top 10 and 11 of the top 30  players being pitchers.  This summer's amateur draft helped bolster the system's arms somewhat; 4 of the top 21 pitchers came from that draft.  In contrast, the highest ranked hitter was Mark Payton, who couldn't crack the top 30 hitters.  Yankees Director of Amateur Scouting Damon Oppenheimer stated that was not intentional but rather it was just how the draft played out.

Here's the top 30 post-season prospect list:
Rank Name POS Born
1 Luis Severino SP 1994
2 Aaron Judge RF 1992
3 Gary Sanchez C 1992
4 Ian Clarkin SP 1995
5 Greg Bird 1B 1992
6 Luis Torrens C 1996
7 Eric Jagielo 3B 1992
8 Jacob Lindgren RP 1993
9 Rob Refsnyder 2B/LF 1991
10 Jorge Mateo SS 1995
11 Jake Cave CF 1992
12 Tyler Austin RF/1B 1991
13 Manny Banuelos SP 1991
14 Miguel Andujar 3B 1995
15 Austin DeCarr SP 1995
16 Brady Lail SP 1993
17 Tyler Wade SS 1994
18 Abiatal Avelino SS 1995
19 Ty Hensley SP 1993
20 Angel Aguilar SS 1995
21 Alexander Palma CF 1995
22 Leonardo Molina CF 1997
23 Bryan Mitchell SP 1991
24 Gosuke Katoh 2B 1994
25 Jose Ramirez RP 1990
26 Mason Williams CF 1991
27 Slade Heathcott CF 1990
28 Jose Pirela 2B 1989
29 Jaron Long SP 1991
30 Nick Rumbelow RP 1991

Severino emerged in a major way in 2014.  He's on the smaller side at 6’0", 195 pounds but has BIG TIME stuff. He features a fastball that sits 93-95 with life, an above average change and a slider that will flash plus at times.  He will have to continue overcoming the doubt that comes with pitchers his size starting in the majors.  Judge showed that he has an ability to get on-base regularly with a good understanding of the strike zone and a relatively compact swing.  Baseball America editor John Manuel described his throwing arm this week as double-plus, making him a good fit for RF.  Sanchez still has his doubters that he can stay behind the dish, despite an impressive throwing arm.  The only other realistic place for Gary to play would be 1B, which would nulify his big arm, so New York will continue to put him behind the plate in hopes of him being a passable big league catcher.  Clarkin lacks an above-average pitch, according to Baseball America's JJ Cooper, but what he lacks in "stuff" he makes up for in pitchability and a knack for keeping hitters off balance.  1B Greg Bird performed well in Tampa and Trenton, but missed games due to injury and his prospect status will continue to depend on him hitting at a high level.

Four prospects who made significant improvements this year were Rob Refsnyder, Jake Cave, Jose Pirela, and Jaron Long.  Refsnyder is a bat first tweener who doesn't have the power to profile as an OF and has not yet mastered playing 2B...but man can he rake. He should force his way onto the roster next season, hopefully as a 2B. Jake Cave is a CF who plays hard and is solid across the board but doesn't show a lot of high end tools.  Pirela is another candidate for playing time at 2B next year thanks to his .333/.360/.542 slash line in his September call up this year.  RHP Jaron Long, son of hitting coach Kevin Long, doesn't have overwhelming stuff but located his high 80s fastball well and performed extremely well in both Tampa and Trenton this year.

On the other side of the coin, there were 3 players who really saw their prospect status diminished significantly.  2B Gosuke Katoh tore the GCL up last year after being drafted in the 2nd round out of high school but struggled mightily this year in low A Charleston.  April and May were brutal for Katoh, who then rebounded in June and July with averages of .291 and .273, respectively, and on-base percentages near .400, before coming back to Spring production levels in August.  CFs Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott have been top 10 prospects since I started doing this list a couple years ago, but 2014 went really poorly for both.  Williams has never developed a hitting approach that will work in AA, much less the majors. And Heathcott again missed SIGNIFICANT time, (played in only 9 games), due to injury.  At this point, I simply don't think either one will make it, despite their immense talent.

There are several exciting young prospects that played in rookie ball this summer. First, SS Jorge Mateo looks legit and forced his way into my top 10.  He was ranked 4th in Baseball America's top 20 GCL prospects list. They said he has top-end speed, and has excellent bat speed and very good range on defense.  They also ranked SS Angel Aguilar 15th in the GCL; they said he can hit for average and power and fields his position well with an average arm.  RF Alexander Palma is 1 of New York's 2 big IFA signings in 2012, (the other being Luis Torrens). He made it stateside a year after the top 10 catcher and performed really well in the GCL. He has good bat control and at least average or better raw power with the defensive tools for right field.  I would expect him to move up to Staten Island or maybe Pulaski, the team's new Appy League affiliate.  CF Leonardo Molina had a tough summer in the GCL, which is understandable given he was just 16 for most of the season.  He still has great tools and is very promising.

Below you'll see a deep dive into the top 30 hitters and pitchers.  First, the hitters:

Rank Player Position
Born
1 Aaron Judge RF 1992
2 Gary Sanchez C 1992
3 Greg Bird 1B 1992
4 Luis Torrens C 1996
5 Eric Jagielo 3B 1992
6 Rob Refsnyder 2B/LF 1991
7 Jorge Mateo SS 1995
8 Jake Cave CF 1992
9 Tyler Austin RF/1B 1991
10 Miguel Andujar 3B 1995
11 Tyler Wade SS 1994
12 Abiatal Avelino SS 1995
13 Angel Aguilar SS 1995
14 Alexander Palma CF 1995
15 Leonardo Molina CF 1997
16 Gosuke Katoh 2B 1994
17 Mason Williams CF 1991
18 Slade Heathcott CF 1990
19 Jose Pirela 2B 1989
20 Dustin Fowler OF 1994
21 Thairo Estrada SS 1996
22 Yonauris Rodriguez SS 1997
23 Ben Gamel RF 1992
24 Dante Bichette, Jr. 3B 1992
25 Bryan Cuevas SS 1993
26 Ramon Flores CF/RF 1992
27 Taylor Dugas CF/RF 1989
28 Yancarlos Baez SS 1995
29 Chris Breen RF 1994
30 Connor Spencer 1B 1993

In addition to the previously mentioned Jorge Mateo and Angel Aguilar, the Yankees have a dearth of young SS in the lower levels of the minors.  Abi Avelino, Tyler Wade, and Thairo Estrada are relatively old compared to some of these guys.  Avelino and Wade played in low A Charleston. Avelino dealt with injuries most of what seems like a lost season. Wade actually outperformed expectations and it'll be interesting to see where he starts next year.  Thairo Estrada played the summer at short season Staten Island.  His .271/.348/.288 slash line was a bit of a disappointment.  Bryan Cuevas made a strong impression in the GCL, although at 20 he was a little older than most of the other prospects in the league. But he has power, a good eye at the plate and uses the whole field.  In 2013, the Yankees signed Yonauris Rodriguez a wiry framed shortstop with smooth hands, good range and reads off the bat. Surprisingly he was one of the better hitters in the Dominican Summer League, batting .321/.447/.440 in 100 plate appearances. The power isn’t there yet, and it might never be part of his game, but Rodriguez is a more advanced, more complete player than scouts were projecting him to be at this time a year ago.  Yancarlos Baez, an IFA whom the Yankees gave a $650K bonus in 2012, had a nice season the DSL and was promoted to the GCL for the last 2 weeks of the season.

And next year it's going to be even more crowded when this years crop of IFA play.  They signed 4 that will at least start out their careers as SS. It'll be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

Ok, here are the pitchers:

Rank Player Position Born
1 Luis Severino SP 1994
2 Ian Clarkin SP 1995
3 Jacob Lindgren RP 1993
4 Manny Banuelos SP 1991
5 Austin DeCarr SP 1995
6 Brady Lail SP 1993
7 Ty Hensley SP 1993
8 Bryan Mitchell SP 1991
9 Jose Ramirez RP 1990
10 Jaron Long SP 1991
11 Nick Rumbelow RP 1991
12 Tyler Webb RP 1990
13 Rony Bautista SP 1991
14 Mark Montgomery RP 1990
15 James Pazos RP 1991
16 Jose Campos SP 1992
17 Zach Nuding SP 1990
18 Nik Turley SP 1989
19 Gabe Encinas SP 1991
20 Jordan Foley RP 1993
21 Jordan Montgomery SP 1992
22 Nick Goody RP 1991
23 David Palladino SP 1993
24 Rookie Davis SP 1993
25 Matt Tracy SP 1988
26 Dietrich Enns SP 1991
27 Caleb Smith SP 1991
28 Giovanny Gallegos SP 1991
29 Dayton Dawe SP 1994
30 Daniel Camarena SP 1992

The system's most apparent area of strength is relievers.  New York used their 2nd rd draft pick this summer on Mississippi State closer Jacob Lindgren.  The LHP is at worst a really good LOOGY but should profile as a setup guy or closer.  Unlike other positions like SS where the best prospects are all in the lower minors, our best relievers are all knocking on the door.  This could help ease the pain somewhat if we lose David Robertson.  Nick Rumbelow, Tyler Webb, and Mark Montgomery all have AAA experience and James Pazos finished the year in AA.  I expect to see most if not all of those guys play in the bigs at some point next year or at worse the year after.

Well, that's all for now. I'll check back in if and when NY makes any significant signings this winter.