Say it Ain't So Cano!

Thursday, September, 26, 2013

by: Ben Embry

The Yankee Empire, fresh off an 8-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays that put the final nail in the Yankees' 2013 playoff hopes, woke up today to utterly shocking news: superstar second baseman Robinson Cano is reportedly asking for a 10-year, $305 million contract this winter.  WHA-WHAT?!  

This would be the same amount the Yankees signed A-Rod for following the 2007 season, ($275 million plus incentives).  It's interesting to me Cano is using this pact as a comp.  On the surface, Robbie should rightfully expect to get as much or more money as any Yankee free agent in recent history.  He has been New York's best player for the past 4 seasons and in the discussion for the best player in the game today.  He is on the threshold of Yankee legend-dom.  Give him a couple more years playing at this level and he becomes unquestionably the best second baseman in team history, (he may be there already).  In a couple years I think it'd be fair to start talking Hall of Fame.  

But even the slightest of mentions of the A-Rod extension should surely give management and ownership pause.  Frankly, it should give them nightmares.  They've been trying to get out from underneath that contract harder than Jesse Pinkman trying to escape a Nazi desert base camp.  Do you really want that situation in the back of the team's mind during negotiations, Robbie?

For years, Cano has been compared and contrasted to Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia because they've been the best two players at that position over the past decade.  The 30 year old Pedroia recently signed a healthy but not unreasonable 7 year, $110 million extension.  He'll be 38 before the deal is completed, thus making him a Bean-head for life.  Good for him, and good for Boston.  It's what they both wanted.  It'd be kinda nice if Robbie felt the same way about the Yanks, wouldn't it?

Ultimately you have to see that this is a negotiating ploy.  There's no way Cano gets $305 million from anyone, not even the Yankees on their most desperate day.  I hope Robbie comes back.  I hope the Yankees give him a fat contract, (even fatter than he probably deserves), because if they're going to throw money around, who better to give it to then possibly the next great Yankee?  But if he leaves because we didn't give him $300 million, than New York should hold its head up high and maybe even feel relieved, because that kind of contract generally works out for the worst.

A Fond Farewell to Two of the Core Four

Friday, September 27, 2013

by: Ben Embry

It's been a tough week in the Yankee Empire.  The team, severely undermanned and underestimated all season, finally relented and slipped to the void of post-season spectators.  Pretty rare for the Bombers, having missed the playoffs just twice since 1993.  Amazing consistency for any sports franchise.  It just further cements them as the most successful sports franchise in American history, (as if 27 World Championships wasn't enough).

But missing the playoffs is not really what made it tough.  It's difficult to say goodbye, and Yankee fans had to do it twice this week.  First Andy Pettitte, with his fairly abrupt retirement, pitched his last game in the majors on Sunday.  He went out in a blaze of glory, firing 7 strong IP with 6 K and only 2 ER, though unfortunately took the loss.  Then last night, in the most emotional moment in Yankee Stadium since September 2001, Mariano Rivera threw his last 1.1 IP ever. And he was spectacular, (would you expect anything less?)  Jeter and Andy coming to get Mo is probably my favorite non-championship-winning moment ever.  Whoever thought of that deserves a raise.  Whatever they make, double it effective today.

So two of the Core Four are riding off into the sunset, leaving only the Captain left.  Their legacies are cemented.  Andy is the dependable workhorse who quietly pitched his way to a fringy Hall of Fame career.  I've said it several times: there is NO ONE I trusted on the mound in a big spot more than Pettitte.  To call him a warrior doesn't quite do it justice.  He wasn't flashy, just dignified.  He didn't yell or scream, but his ferocity was still unmatched.

As for Mariano, ten-thousand words wouldn't begin to do his career justice.  He's not just the greatest closer of all time.  He's not just a Yankee legend, in the discussion for the "Mount Rushmore" of greatest Yankees of all time.  He's not just a Christian, a role model, a fine human being.  He's all those things and a 1,000 things more.  The question of "Who will replace Rivera?" always elicits the cliched response "Rivera cannot be replaced".  Well, it's a cliche because its true.  Whoever pitches the 9th inning for the Yankees going forward is just another guy.  And that seems unfair, but that's just the way it is.

Something else I've said many times is "Derek Jeter is the Mickey Mantle of our generation."  He's larger than life.  He's playing against and with men who idolized him as boys and still do to this day.  That, my friends, is rare.  And watching him leave, whenever that will be, will be extremely tough.  But if Jeter is Mantle, than Rivera is Yogi Berra.  He's the lovable legend who will come back to Yankee Stadium year after year to louder and louder ovations.  He went straight into Monument Park, and rightly so.

To Andy and Mo, it's unlikely you'll ever read this obscure blog post.  It's one of hundreds that are singing your praises.  So many, you couldn't possibly read them all.  But if by some chance you do, let me tell you: THANK YOU.  Thank you for the memories, the championships, the good times.  You cannot be replaced.  Go now and live your lives in peace and comfort and occasionally think about us because we will always be thinking about you.

Farm System Rankings: Additional Thoughts

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

by: Ben Embry

Last week I issued a ranking of what I believe are the top 25 prospects in the system today.  My opinion is based mainly on what scouts and journalists are saying, as well as buzz I'm picking up from fans on twitter.

Today, let me try to expand on those rankings as best I can:

Sanchez and de Paula were easy choices to go #1-2.  When Baseball America, MLB.com, Keith Law, and Kiley McDaniel weigh in with their Top 100 overall rankings, these are the only two I feel will universally make the lists with great certainty.  Now, it would not surprise me to see some if not most of them to go with RDP over Sanchez.  And if that happens I'll gladly reverse my position.  But for now I take Sanchez because he's the established candidate and I'm somewhat concerned about RDP's performance when promoted to Tampa, (6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP but still excellent 9.18 K/9 in 49 IP).  If he had come anywhere close to his Charelston stats, (2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 13.43 K/9 in 64.1 IP), he would have been #1 without question.  I believe management will continue pushing Sanchez as a C, which is important to his prospect status, but if they move him (which sounds almost inevitable) then he'll take a hit, the extent of which will be determined by where he's moved to.

The next 5 guys, (#3-7), are in a cluster for me.  Williams got the best ranking of the group because he's the toolsiest of the bunch.  His prospect status is the most capable of withstanding poor performance in my opinion.  And honestly, he received what was the probably the best compliment out of any of them recently, and that is that his glove could play in the majors right now.  That is still an elite tool for him and is carrying him.  He needs to improve his plate approach/discipline.  Right now, sounds like he's an easy out for veteran pitchers.

The next three (#4-6) I was the most uncertain about.  Jagielo, Austin, and Bird were all difficult to differentiate.  Basically their positions served as the tiebreaker.  Jagielo being a 3B who actually lived up to his pre-season hype won out.  I took Austin over Bird for the reason I stated before: position.  But that's when I thought he was still a RF.  News that he was going to play some 1B in the AFL clued me in that a position change may be coming but now I've heard he'll also be playing 1B at instructs, which tells me this will probably be his position going forward.  And with that in mind, if I were going to do that rankings today I would have Bird over Austin because of his performance this year.

Heathcott (#7) was one of last Spring's big 4, (along with Sanchez, Williams, and Austin), and obviously took the biggest slide.  Multiple trips to the DL and an overall weak performance at the plate, (.261/.327/.411), required a drop in ranking.  His greatest attribute is his glove, but the reckless abandon style with which he plays the field may also be his biggest weakness.

Manny Banuelos (#8) is kinda tough to rank for obvious reasons - he hasn't played in about a year and a half.  Prior to Tommy John surgery he was NY's best prospect.  But the elbow injury and ineffectvness prior to it make Man-Ban a total wild card.  I'll make a prediction right now: one of two things will happen to him in 2014.  He'll either bounce back well and be promoted to the bigs sometime in the summer or he'll struggle which would necessitate moving him down the board, and probably by a lot.  Either way, he'll not be ranked in the back half of the top ten next year.

J.R. Murphy (#9) is maybe the most consistent player in the farm system right now.  He's never terrible but, with the exception of the first half of this season, never stellar.  It was that stellar half season that caused me to rank him #4 at the mid-season point, and I admit that probably was an over-rank looking back on it.  Back half of the top ten, which is where I had him last Fall, is about right for him.

Aaron Judge (#10) is a wild card in every sense of the term.  He's the classic boom or bust candidate.  He'll either crush a home run or strike out.  And the injury that's kept him out all summer and will now keep him out of instructs just adds to the unpredictability of his prospect status.    Like Banuelos, he'll either move up a lot or down a lot depending on next season.  His number ten ranking is just a placeholder because I have little to go on right now.  But there's little chance he's still in the back half of the top ten.

The pitchers at #11-14 are all very interesting and could all see an RDP-like rise in next year's rankings.  Ramirez was actually #5 this year at mid-season but, like Murphy, that was probably a little bit of an over-rank.  Jose Campos played well this year I thought, but Keith Law blasted his delivery in a in-person performance review, stating its destined to cause injury.  Clarkin is the 1st rounder who did not perform particularly well in the GCL, (10.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in just 5 IP), and Hensley, (who missed all year due to injury), is last year's first rounder who are where they where based purely on reputation.  I really just believe better days are ahead for these two and thus have them ranked here.

Abi Avelino (#15) is the diminutive SS that plays really well in the field and has moved quickly through the system so far.  Bryan Mitchell (#16) finally put it together on the field, (his stuff and reputation carried his prospect status previously despite mediocre on field performance).  Caleb Smith (#16) is a 2013 draftee that shot through the system quickly ala Corey Black in 2012.  Gabe Encinas (#17) has drawn favorable reviews from the aforementioned Keith Law.

Mark Montgomery (#18) has slid pretty consistently in every rankings I've done since putting him in last year's top 10, but he still has a sick slider that I can't wait to see him snap off in the majors next year.  Ramon Flores, Brett Marshall, Angelo Gumbs, Nik Turley, and Corban Joseph (#20-24) are all guys who have slid in rankings but are still too good to slide all the way off, (ala Dante Bichette and Cito Culver who are not worthy of consideration at this point).  Gumbs had a particularly tough season.  He started the season ranked 7th on my board, but a demotion from Tampa to Charleston after only 39 games and an overall poor performance (.213/.263/.330 in 91 games) necessitated a strong drop in my eyes.  And Michael O'Neill (#25) is here primarily due to pre-draft hype, though I was disappointed in his performance in Staten Island, (particularly the strikeout rate).  Ok, maybe being Paul O'Neill's nephew factored into the decision, as well.

I want to give a quick shout out to Shane Greene, who admittedly flew almost completely under my radar until yesterday when I read Mark Newman mentioned him as the system's best pitching prospect.  Kinda hard to believe I missed that one.  And the shame of it is he'll be too old to make next year's pre-season list, (players starting the season 25 years or older are ineligible).  I may have to create an award in his honor that will go to the player I am most embarrassed to admit I overlooked or under-ranked in the previous list, and hey, that may be a lot more meaningful than being ranked in the back half of the top 20 of the list.  As a matter of fact, I know just who to give that to from the mid-season list!

The inaugural Shane Greene Award goes to: Greg Bird!  Yes, the guy who is ranked 6th on this list was 24th just two months ago!  Hey, I never claimed to be an expert.

Also, I want to mention four guys who got strong consideration for the list: Miguel Andujar, Luis Torrens, Peter O'Brien, and Jake Cave.  I like them all and they could all easily make the list next spring depending on what happens between now and then.

Yankees 2013 Post-season Farm System Rankings

Saturday, September 14, 2014

by: Ben Embry

Well, a little embarrassed to say its been a while since I've posted!  It's been tough to scrounge up the motivation to write for some reason.  For me, it comes and goes.  Who knows, I may start burning through posts like a madman, (I certainly have enough ideas).

It wasn't that long ago that I was doing a mid-season rankings (about 6 weeks basically).  I think next year I'll do one right after the draft, whereas this year I waited about 6 weeks later.

I've continued to refine the process and basically my opinion of what makes some prospects better than others.  For one thing, I've moved further and further away from stats based ranking and am going more and more with what I'm hearing and reading from scouts and journalists close to the action.  With that, I want to make this disclaimer: I'm not a scout.  I am merely a compiler of opinions and information.  Take my rankings not as a professional opinion, but rather a fan's opinion based on what he's hearing.

With that in mind, here's the updated list:

Before I talk about specific players, let me touch on the farm system in general. For the second straight year, I think it has failed to live up to expectations.  Last year was plagued by injuries, (Banuelos, Campos, etc) but this year has been plagued by "wheel spinning".  The top 4 guys from the pre-season list, (Austin, Sanchez, Williams, Heathcott), all failed to take steps forward.  Austin and Heathcott dealt with injuries.  Sanchez just kinda failed to improve offensively and fewer people believe he can be a major league catcher.   Williams apparently regressed at the plate, though defensively he may actually be ready for the majors RIGHT NOW.  If you could combine Sanchez's bat with Williams's glove/speed, (Masonry Saniams?), you'd have one hell of a player!

Certainly there were some guys take steps forward.  Rafael de Paula and Greg Bird dominated low A, meriting big jumps.  I think RDP is a top 100 overall talent and Bird, with his outstanding combination of HR power and plate discipline, will get consideration.  I think the problem Greg will face going forward is his position...the offensive bar for 1B is very high, so regression from what he did this year will cause him to fall quicker than he climbed.

The biggest positive that can be taken away for this year's farm system is that a lot of depth was added through the draft and international signings.  Jagielo, Judge, Clarkin, Smith, and O'Neill were all drafted from this past June and Abi Avelino was signed just last year amazingly.  Unfortunately, all of these guys are still a ways away, (maybe with the exception of Smith who could be a fast riser).  There's also guys like Gosuke Katoh, Tyler Wade, Luis Torrens, Alexander Palma, and Miguel Andujar who are all knocking on the top 25 door already in rookie ball.

I do think the Yankees will take some flack for their overall regression this year. Some may speculate that they don't know how to develop players well.  I can't say for certain, although I continue to hope NY moves away from throwing money at big league free agents to fill holes and instead develops talent that can be called up.

On a somewhat different note, I'm already compiling info for my 2014 draft compilation board.  The first edition should be ready by the end of October.  This seems like an interesting class, and I hope NY will have some early picks to play with.