by: Ben Embry
Last week I issued a ranking of what I believe are the top 25 prospects in the system today. My opinion is based mainly on what scouts and journalists are saying, as well as buzz I'm picking up from fans on twitter.
Today, let me try to expand on those rankings as best I can:
Sanchez and de Paula were easy choices to go #1-2. When Baseball America, MLB.com, Keith Law, and Kiley McDaniel weigh in with their Top 100 overall rankings, these are the only two I feel will universally make the lists with great certainty. Now, it would not surprise me to see some if not most of them to go with RDP over Sanchez. And if that happens I'll gladly reverse my position. But for now I take Sanchez because he's the established candidate and I'm somewhat concerned about RDP's performance when promoted to Tampa, (6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP but still excellent 9.18 K/9 in 49 IP). If he had come anywhere close to his Charelston stats, (2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 13.43 K/9 in 64.1 IP), he would have been #1 without question. I believe management will continue pushing Sanchez as a C, which is important to his prospect status, but if they move him (which sounds almost inevitable) then he'll take a hit, the extent of which will be determined by where he's moved to.
The next 5 guys, (#3-7), are in a cluster for me. Williams got the best ranking of the group because he's the toolsiest of the bunch. His prospect status is the most capable of withstanding poor performance in my opinion. And honestly, he received what was the probably the best compliment out of any of them recently, and that is that his glove could play in the majors right now. That is still an elite tool for him and is carrying him. He needs to improve his plate approach/discipline. Right now, sounds like he's an easy out for veteran pitchers.
The next three (#4-6) I was the most uncertain about. Jagielo, Austin, and Bird were all difficult to differentiate. Basically their positions served as the tiebreaker. Jagielo being a 3B who actually lived up to his pre-season hype won out. I took Austin over Bird for the reason I stated before: position. But that's when I thought he was still a RF. News that he was going to play some 1B in the AFL clued me in that a position change may be coming but now I've heard he'll also be playing 1B at instructs, which tells me this will probably be his position going forward. And with that in mind, if I were going to do that rankings today I would have Bird over Austin because of his performance this year.
Heathcott (#7) was one of last Spring's big 4, (along with Sanchez, Williams, and Austin), and obviously took the biggest slide. Multiple trips to the DL and an overall weak performance at the plate, (.261/.327/.411), required a drop in ranking. His greatest attribute is his glove, but the reckless abandon style with which he plays the field may also be his biggest weakness.
Manny Banuelos (#8) is kinda tough to rank for obvious reasons - he hasn't played in about a year and a half. Prior to Tommy John surgery he was NY's best prospect. But the elbow injury and ineffectvness prior to it make Man-Ban a total wild card. I'll make a prediction right now: one of two things will happen to him in 2014. He'll either bounce back well and be promoted to the bigs sometime in the summer or he'll struggle which would necessitate moving him down the board, and probably by a lot. Either way, he'll not be ranked in the back half of the top ten next year.
J.R. Murphy (#9) is maybe the most consistent player in the farm system right now. He's never terrible but, with the exception of the first half of this season, never stellar. It was that stellar half season that caused me to rank him #4 at the mid-season point, and I admit that probably was an over-rank looking back on it. Back half of the top ten, which is where I had him last Fall, is about right for him.
Aaron Judge (#10) is a wild card in every sense of the term. He's the classic boom or bust candidate. He'll either crush a home run or strike out. And the injury that's kept him out all summer and will now keep him out of instructs just adds to the unpredictability of his prospect status. Like Banuelos, he'll either move up a lot or down a lot depending on next season. His number ten ranking is just a placeholder because I have little to go on right now. But there's little chance he's still in the back half of the top ten.
The pitchers at #11-14 are all very interesting and could all see an RDP-like rise in next year's rankings. Ramirez was actually #5 this year at mid-season but, like Murphy, that was probably a little bit of an over-rank. Jose Campos played well this year I thought, but Keith Law blasted his delivery in a in-person performance review, stating its destined to cause injury. Clarkin is the 1st rounder who did not perform particularly well in the GCL, (10.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in just 5 IP), and Hensley, (who missed all year due to injury), is last year's first rounder who are where they where based purely on reputation. I really just believe better days are ahead for these two and thus have them ranked here.
Abi Avelino (#15) is the diminutive SS that plays really well in the field and has moved quickly through the system so far. Bryan Mitchell (#16) finally put it together on the field, (his stuff and reputation carried his prospect status previously despite mediocre on field performance). Caleb Smith (#16) is a 2013 draftee that shot through the system quickly ala Corey Black in 2012. Gabe Encinas (#17) has drawn favorable reviews from the aforementioned Keith Law.
Mark Montgomery (#18) has slid pretty consistently in every rankings I've done since putting him in last year's top 10, but he still has a sick slider that I can't wait to see him snap off in the majors next year. Ramon Flores, Brett Marshall, Angelo Gumbs, Nik Turley, and Corban Joseph (#20-24) are all guys who have slid in rankings but are still too good to slide all the way off, (ala Dante Bichette and Cito Culver who are not worthy of consideration at this point). Gumbs had a particularly tough season. He started the season ranked 7th on my board, but a demotion from Tampa to Charleston after only 39 games and an overall poor performance (.213/.263/.330 in 91 games) necessitated a strong drop in my eyes. And Michael O'Neill (#25) is here primarily due to pre-draft hype, though I was disappointed in his performance in Staten Island, (particularly the strikeout rate). Ok, maybe being Paul O'Neill's nephew factored into the decision, as well.
I want to give a quick shout out to Shane Greene, who admittedly flew almost completely under my radar until yesterday when I read Mark Newman mentioned him as the system's best pitching prospect. Kinda hard to believe I missed that one. And the shame of it is he'll be too old to make next year's pre-season list, (players starting the season 25 years or older are ineligible). I may have to create an award in his honor that will go to the player I am most embarrassed to admit I overlooked or under-ranked in the previous list, and hey, that may be a lot more meaningful than being ranked in the back half of the top 20 of the list. As a matter of fact, I know just who to give that to from the mid-season list!
The inaugural Shane Greene Award goes to: Greg Bird! Yes, the guy who is ranked 6th on this list was 24th just two months ago! Hey, I never claimed to be an expert.
Also, I want to mention four guys who got strong consideration for the list: Miguel Andujar, Luis Torrens, Peter O'Brien, and Jake Cave. I like them all and they could all easily make the list next spring depending on what happens between now and then.
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