Hot Stove season is officially upon us folks. Boston apparently didn't care for finishing last in the division and went and signed 2 top hitters, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, from this year's free agent class. Seeing as how pitching is clearly the teams weakness, I would expect them to sign a top free agent AND trade for someone else. They have an over abundance of talented OF and guys who can play on the left side of the infield.
The Red Sox' aggressive jump at the outset of the offseason has many Yankees fans wondering how the team will respond. Opinions vary wildly if my twitter feed is any indication. Rumors abound that, prior to the Sandoval and Ramirez signings, New York was content to re-sign guys like Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy and avoid big ticket items like Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Jon Lester. It's this fan's opinion that they should stick to that plan, (if that is indeed their plan) and instead focus on depth and position versatility. This is largely a continuation of last offseason's moves when they signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka. That outlay of $438 million likely pushed management up to the limits of their budget, (as so far as New York has a budget). Those players cost New York not only money but three 1st round draft picks, as well. It was literally and figuratively a very costly winter and this fan wonders whether they want to go back to the well so quickly.
Let me throw out one more reason New York should avoid big ticket items this winter. It's more of a macro-level, abstract concept... New York's championship window is closed right now. There is no combination of moves, signings and/or trades, that could propel the roster to a point where you could reasonably expect to compete for the championship in 2015. The roster is simply overloaded with players you cannot rely on to either play everyday and/or play at a championship level. What will New York get from A-Rod? Will Beltran and Teixeira stay healthy? Can Sabathia take the ball 25+ times (and be competitive even when he does)? Will McCann come close to the production management expected when they gave him $85 million? Can Ellsbury play in 145+ games for a 2nd consecutive season for the first time since 2009? Is Tanaka going to be fully bounced back from an injury that limited him to 20 starts? Will Pineda give us more than 13 starts? There's just too many questions on this team. Something, (likely multiple somethings), are bound to blow up in a minefield such as this. Any moves should be made with the intention of filling in around these guys that ownership has invested a lot of money in. And they collectively take up so much space on the roster that there's really only room for one or two more significant pieces. And one or two more significant pieces, no matter who they are, won't be enough to make this a contender.
So this question must be asked: why give Max Scherzer a 6-7 year deal when the last half of it will be for a player in decline and the team won't compete for a championship for at least the first year or two anyway? THIS IS THE CRUX OF MY ARGUMENT.
So, with that hypothesis stated, when can Yankee fans expect for the championship window open? Obviously if the current contracts on the books are an impediment, some will have to start disappearing to make room. The following table illustrates what I think are all significant contracts, (due to either size or the player being a valuable member of the team), and the year they expire:
| Player | AAV | FA Yr |
| Sabathia | $23.25M | 2017 |
| Teixeira | $22.5M | 2017 |
| Beltran | $15M | 2017 |
| Rodriguez | $27.5M | 2018 |
| Gardner | $13M | 2019 |
| Pineda * | $.5M | 2019 |
| McCann | $17M | 2020 |
| Tanaka ** | $22.1M | 2021 |
| Betances * | $.5M | 2021 |
| Ellsbury | $21.9M | 2022 |
** - has opt out after 2017
The first three dead weight contracts don't come off the books until 2017. This would be the earliest that the window would be open in my opinion. A-Rod's albatross of a contract will be on the books for one year after that. I would not sign a player to a contract for more than 3 years until at least Tex, Sabathia, and Beltran are gone.
Another aspect that needs to be considered is when we could expect help from the farm system. The next table is New York's top 10 prospects and the season I expect for them to arrive:
| Player | Arrival |
| Lindgren | 2015 |
| Refsnyder | 2015 |
| Severino | 2016 |
| Judge | 2016 |
| Sanchez | 2016 |
| Bird | 2016 |
| Jagielo | 2017 |
| Clarkin | 2018 |
| Torrens | 2018 |
| Mateo | 2018 |
While I think New York will get contributions from a couple prospects in 2015, it's the following year that they could receive a real boost. Arguably the four best overall players in the system should all arrive in 2016. I would target the offseason following 2016 as the year I try to open the window, (hoarding prospects and saving draft picks in the process). Pineda will be under contract for 2 more years and Tanaka can opt out the following winter so already you're seeing the other side of the window and when it may close.
So, in conclusion, I would conserve resources, (i.e. money and draft picks), this offseason and the next in order to maximize the team's potential for 2017 and beyond. That's easier said then done. Certainly the team has had designs to do something similar in the past and eventually they caved to pressure from the fan base to compete now. We'll see what happens.
So, in conclusion, I would conserve resources, (i.e. money and draft picks), this offseason and the next in order to maximize the team's potential for 2017 and beyond. That's easier said then done. Certainly the team has had designs to do something similar in the past and eventually they caved to pressure from the fan base to compete now. We'll see what happens.
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