2016 MLB Draft Compilation Rankings #1 (Top 60)

by: Ben Embry

It's finally that time of year when I issue the first compilation ranking for the next MLB Draft.  It's a little thing I like to do to stay up on who the big names are in the draft pool.  What I do is take rankings from 4-5 different sources that I trust the most on the subject of draft prospects and I compile them into one board.

Rnk	Name	Pos	School
1	Jason Groome	SP	H.S.
2	A.J. Puk	SP	Florida
3	Alec Hansen	SP	Oklahoma
4	Blake Rutherford	CF	H.S.
5	Corey Ray	CF	Louisville
6	Riley Pint	SP	H.S.
7	Connor Jones	SP	Virginia
8	Nick Banks	RF	Texas A&M
9	Delvin Perez	SS	H.S.
10	Mickey Moniak	OF	H.S.
11	Cal Quantrill	SP	Stanford
12	Kyle Lewis	OF	Mercer
13	Bobby Dalbec	3B	Arizona
14	Matt Krook	SP	Oregon
15	Will Benson	OF	H.S.
16	Buddy Reed	OF	Florida
17	Logan Shore	SP	Florida
18	Drew Mendoza	SS	H.S.
19	Nolan Jones	3B	H.S.
20	Ian Anderson	SP	H.S.
21	Alex Speas	SP	H.S.
22	Ryan Boldt	CF	Nebraska
23	Robert Tyler	SP	Georgia
24	Reggie Lawson	SP	H.S.
25	Kevin Gowdy	SP	H.S.
26	Austin Bergner	SP	H.S.
27	Bryan Reynolds	OF	Vanderbilt
28	Nick Senzel	3B	Tennessee
29	Brandon McIlwain	OF	H.S.
30	Kyle Funkhouser	SP	Louisville
31	Avery Tuck	OF	H.S.
32	Josh Lowe	SP	H.S.
33	Jordan Sheffield	SP	Vanderbilt
34	Forrest Whitley	SP	H.S.
35	Jesus Luzardo	SP	H.S.
36	Michael Shawaryn	SP	Maryland
37	Daulton Jefferies	SP	California
38	Chris Okey	C	Clemson
39	Carter Kieboom	3B	H.S.
40	Bo Bichette	3B	H.S.
41	Braxton Garrett	SP	H.S.
42	Dakota Hudson	SP	Mississippi St
43	Zach Jackson	SP	Arkansas
44	Brad Debo	C	South Carolina
45	Zack Burdi	SP/RP	Louisville
46	Dane Dunning	P	Florida
47	David Hamilton	SS	H.S.
48	Matt Crohan	SP	Winthrop
49	Alex Kiriloff	OF	H.S.
50	Matt Manning	SP	H.S.
51	Jeff Belge	SP	H.S.
52	Zack Brown	SP/RP	Kentucky
53	Willie Abreu	OF	Miami (FL)
54	Eric Lauer	SP	Kent St
55	Seth Beer	OF	H.S.
56	Joe Rizzo	3B	H.S.
57	Bailey Clark	SP/RP	Duke
58	Ian Hamilton	RP	Washington St
59	Alexis Torres	SS	H.S.
60	Jake Fraley	CF	LSU

I've finally been doing this long enough that I'm recognizing names of college kids from when they were HS prospects. Not that 3 years is a long time, mind you...but I think it's cool. AJ Puk, Corey Ray, Connor Jones, Cal Quantrill are just a few kids who popped up as HS kids the first time around.  Quantrill is one that easily comes to mind because the Yankees drafted him the first time around. Count me as a big supporter of the idea of redrafting this one.  New York currently has the #20 pick.  That could go up... or go away completely... depending on what happens with the remaining qualifying free agents.

I like to give credit where credit is due regarding the inputs for my compilation. This time around I used ESPN (Keith Law, Eric Langenhagen), MLB.com (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo), Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel), and MY MLB Draft. I suggest you check those sites out. Always good content from all.

2015 MLB Draft Compilation Rankings (Top 200)

by: Ben Embry

Friends, the Major League Baseball Draft is 2 days away.  For most baseball fans, the 3 day event comes and goes with little if any awareness.  This may have to do with the fact that it, unlike the other major sports drafts, takes place in the middle of the season.  The draft is not televised on ESPN, (also unlike other sports leagues like the NFL and NBA), which further diminishes awareness of the event.  

This compilaton board is something I like to do to stay up on who the big names are in the draft pool. What I do is take rankings from 4 different sources that I trust the most on the subject of draft prospects and I compile them into one board.  And honestly, it is very difficult to find a lot of information on the MLB Draft on the internet, at least compared to the more popular NFL and NBA Drafts for reasons stated above.  The MLB Draft is more niche-y, so I like to consider what I do a service to those other MLB draftniks out there who are looking for some good information.

Rnk	Name	Pos	School
1	Brendan Rodgers	SS	H.S.
2	Dansby Swanson	SS	Vandy
3	Alex Bregman	SS/2B	LSU
4	Dillon Tate	SP	UC Santa B
5	Carson Fulmer	SP/RP	Vandy
6	Kyle Tucker	OF	H.S.
7	Daz Cameron	OF	H.S.
8	Andrew Benintendi	OF	Arkansas
9	Tyler Jay	SP/RP	Illinois
10	Trenton Clark	OF	H.S.
11	Garrett Whitley	OF	H.S.
12	Ian Happ	2B/OF	Cincinnati
13	Walker Buehler	SP	Vandy
14	Tyler Stephenson	C	H.S.
15	Kyle Funkhouser	SP	Louisville
16	Kolby Allard	SP	H.S.
17	Jonathan Harris	SP	Mo. State
18	Mike Nikorak	SP	H.S.
19	Cornelius Randolph	3B	H.S.
20	Nick Plummer	OF	H.S.
21	James Kaprielian	SP	UCLA
22	Chris Betts	C	H.S.
23	Donny Everett	SP	H.S.
24	Brady Aiken	SP	IMG Acad
25	Ashe Russell	SP	H.S.
26	Michael Matuella	SP	Duke
27	Phil Bickford	SP	JUCO
28	Kevin Newman	SS	Arizona
29	Nathan Kirby	SP	Virginia
30	D.J. Stewart	OF	Fla State
31	Cody Ponce	SP	Cal Poly P
32	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	H.S.
33	Scott Kingery	2B/OF	Arizona
34	Richie Martin	SS	Florida
35	Beau Burrows	SP	H.S.
36	Alex Young	SP	TCU
37	Dakota Chalmers	SP	H.S.
38	Jacob Nix	SP	IMG Acad
39	Mitchell Hansen	OF	H.S.
40	Jalen Miller	SS	H.S.
41	Justin Hooper	SP	H.S.
42	Eric Jenkins	OF	H.S.
43	Austin Smith	SP	H.S.
44	Juan Hillman	SP	H.S.
45	Joe McCarthy	OF	Virginia
46	Triston McKenzie	SP	H.S.
47	Blake Trahan	SS	La Lafayette
48	Chris Shaw	1B/OF	Boston Col
49	Donnie Dewees	OF	UNF
50	Nolan Watson	SP	H.S.
51	Peter Lambert	SP	H.S.
52	Tristan Beck	SP	H.S.
53	Jacob Woodford	SP	H.S.
54	Kyle Holder	SS	San Diego
55	Drew Finley	SP	H.S.
56	Kep Brown	OF	H.S.
57	Riley Ferrell	RP	TCU
58	Josh Naylor	1B	H.S.
59	Lucas Herbert	C	H.S.
60	Alonzo Jones	2B/OF	H.S.
61	Cole Sands	SP	H.S.
62	Jahmai Jones	2B/OF	H.S.
63	Luken Baker	SP/1B	H.S.
64	Mikey White	SS	Alabama
65	Mike Soroka	SP	H.S.
66	Kyle Cody	SP	Kentucky
67	Nick Neidert	SP	H.S.
68	Demi Orimoloye	OF	H.S.
69	Brady Singer	SP	H.S.
70	Kyle Molnar	SP	H.S.
71	Bryce Denton	OF/3B	H.S.
72	Tyler Nevin	3B	H.S.
73	Andrew Suarez	SP	Miami
74	Christin Stewart	OF	Tennessee
75	Antonio Santillan	SP	H.S.
76	Josh Staumont	SP	Azusa Pac.
77	Jeff Degano	P	Indiana St
78	Ryan Burr	P	Ariz St
79	Harrison Bader	OF	Florida
80	David Hill	SP	San Diego
81	Taylor Ward	C	Fresno St
82	Trey Cabbage	3B	H.S.
83	Jacob Taylor	SP	JUCO
84	Joe DeMers	SP	H.S.
85	Ryan Cole McKay	SP	H.S.
86	Blake Hickman	P	Iowa
87	Bryan Hudson	SP	H.S.
88	Parker McFadden	SP	H.S.
89	Tanner Rainey	P	West Alabama
90	Thomas Eshelman	SP	Cal State F
91	Mark Mathias	OF	Cal Poly SLO
92	Gio Brusa	OF	Pacific
93	Tristin English	SP	H.S.
94	Brandon Lowe	2B	Maryland
95	Chad Smith	OF	H.S.
96	Cadyn Grenier	SS	H.S.
97	Justin Maese	SP	H.S.
98	Brendon Little	SP	H.S.
99	Austin Rei	C	Washington
100	Garrett Davila	SP	H.S.
101	Chandler Day	SP	H.S.
102	Skye Bolt	OF	UNC
103	Desmond Lindsay	3B/1B	H.S.
104	Jonathan India	SS/2B	H.S.
105	Wesley Rodriguez	SP	H.S.
106	Kevin Kramer	SS	UCLA
107	Blake Perkins	OF	H.S.
108	Thomas Szapucki	SP	H.S.
109	Jackson Kowar	SP	H.S.
110	Alex Robinson	RP	Maryland
111	Nick Sprengel	SP	H.S.
112	Casey Hughston	OF	Alabama
113	Brett Lilek	RP	Ariz St
114	Mac Marshall	SP	JUCO
115	Brandon Koch	P	Dallas Baptist
116	Rhett Wiseman	OF	Vandy
117	Tate Matheny	OF	Mo. State
118	Austin Allen	C	Fla Tech
119	Tyler Krieger	SS	Clemson
120	Mariano Rivera, Jr.	P	Iona
121	Austin Byler	3B/1B	Nevada
122	Jared Padgett	SP	H.S.
123	David Thompson	3B	Miami
124	Braden Bishop	OF	Washington
125	Ryan Mountcastle	SS/3B	H.S.
126	Kolton Kendrick	1B	H.S.
127	Marquise Doherty	OF	H.S.
128	Andrew Stevenson	OF	LSU
129	Ian Kahaloa	SP	H.S.
130	Mitchell Traver	SP	TCU
131	Travis Blankenhorn	SS	H.S.
132	Taylor Clarke	SP/RP	Col of Charl
133	Andrew Moore	SP/RP	Oregon St
134	Josh Sborz	RP	Virginia
135	Gray Fenter	SP	H.S.
136	Austin Riley	SP/SS	H.S.
137	Ryan McKenna	OF	H.S.
138	Grayson Long	SP	Texas A&M
139	Jack Wynkoop	SP	South Car
140	Steven Duggar	OF	Clemson
141	Bryan Hoeing	SP	H.S.
142	Luke Wakamatsu	SS	H.S.
143	Ryan Kellogg	SP	Ariz St
144	Tanner Dodson	SP	H.S.
145	D.J. Wilson	OF	H.S.
146	Jimmy Herget	SP/RP	South Fla
147	Paul DeJong	2B/C	Illinois St.
148	Isaiah White	OF	H.S.
149	Doak Dozier	OF	H.S.
150	Garrett Zech	OF	H.S.
151	Joey Bart	C	H.S.
152	Zack Erwin	SP	Clemson
153	Drew Smith	RP	Dallas Baptist
154	Kevin Duchene	SP	Illinois
155	Ben Johnson	OF	Texas
156	Carl Wise	3B	Col of Charl
157	Nick Shumpert	SS	H.S.
158	Elih Marrero	C	H.S.
159	Kyle Dean	OF	H.S.
160	Willie Calhoun	3B	JUCO
161	Jake Lemoine	SP	Houston
162	Jonas Wyatt	SP	H.S.
163	Logan Allen	SP	H.S.
164	Nolan Long	SP/RP	Wagner
165	Ian Gibaut	SP	Tulane
166	Michael Boyle	SP	Radford
167	Nic Enright	SP	H.S.
168	Jaret Hellinger	SP	H.S.
169	Josh Tobias	3B	Florida
170	Patrick Sandoval	SP	H.S.
171	Colton Eastman	SP	H.S.
172	Nick Lee	SP	H.S.
173	Marcus Brakeman	SP	Stanford
174	Dylan Thompson	SP	H.S.
175	Nick Madrigal	SS	H.S.
176	Dayton Dugas	SP	H.S.
177	A.J. Minter	RP	Texas A&M
178	Max Wotell	SP	H.S.
179	Fitz Stadler	SP	H.S.
180	John Kilichowski	SP	Vandy
181	Seth McGarry	SP	Fla Atlantic
182	Joe Davis	C	H.S.
183	Kyri Washington	OF	Longwood
184	Travis Lakins	RP	Ohio St
185	Travis Bergen	SP	Kennesaw St
186	Isiah Gilliam	OF/1B	JUCO
187	Chad Smith	RP	JUCO
188	Ryan Karstetter	3B	H.S.
189	Jacob Croneworth	SP/RP	Michigan
190	Tyler Williams	OF	H.S.
191	Kevin McCanna	SP	Rice
192	Josh Magee	OF	H.S.
193	Justin Garza	SP/RP	Cal State F
194	Jeff Hendrix	OF	Oregon St
195	Travis Maezes	3B	Michigan
196	Chris Chatfield	OF	H.S.
197	Logan Ratledge	2B	NC State
198	Max Schrock	2B	South Car
199	Tyler Ferguson	RP	Vandy
200	Sam Bordner	SP	H.S.

Interesting Tidbits:
-  The biggest risers from last month's compilation board are Andrew Benintendi (+52), Nolan Watson (+37), Tyler Stephenson (+35), Mike Soroka (+33), and Lucas Herbert (+31).  The biggest risers from the original compilation board are Tyler Jay (+28), Dillon Tate (+25), Garrett Whitley (+22), and Cornelius Randolph (also +22).
-  The biggest fallers from last month's board are Jake Lemoine (-78), Kyle Dean (-71), Mitchell Traver (-53), and David Thompson (-52).  The biggest fallers from the original compilation board are Marcus Brakeman (-133), Chandler Day (-66), Gio Brusa (-61), and Kyle Cody (-45).
- The most divisive players are Carson Fulmer (#3 on MLB.com, #43 on ESPN.com), Kevin Newman (#2 on ESPN.com, #29 on Baseball America), and Alex Young (32, 36, and 37 on Baseball America, Fangraphs, and MLB.com respectively, not ranked in top 100 on ESPN.com).
- Brendan Rodgers was #1 on all 3 comp boards, the first time anyone has ever done that in the 3 years I've been doing this.  Other models of consistency were Ian Happ (range from 10-14), Daz Cameron (7 to 14), and Richie Martin (28 to 37).

As I mentioned, Brendan Rodgers has held serve since the original board as the #1 ranked prospect.  He's a HS SS that has a good chance to stay at the position and hit for power and average.  He's a little big for SS so if anything, he would have to move to 3B but most think his plus instincts will allow him to stay where he is.  Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, two SS who play in the SEC, are the #2 and #3 ranked players on the board.  Though he actually played 2B until this year in defence to current Yankees SS prospect Vince Conde, Swanson has the best chance to stay at the position of the top 3 players.  Bregman has many believers who think he can stay at SS but there is a strong contingent of scouts who believe the 5'11 Albuquerque native will have to make the same move as other notable Albuquerque middle infielder Dustin Pedroia to 2B.

The Yankees have 7 of the first 200 picks, (16, 30, 57, 92, 123, 153, and 183).  Their draft pool is the sixth largest in the league, ($7,885,000 for 11 picks); the first two picks are worth a combined $4.5 million by themselves.  That much in bonus allowances gives NY some options.  For example, if there's a top 10 caliber player with equivalent bonus demands that, for whatever reason, ends slides to 16, the Yankees could easily meet those demands.  Granted, they'd have to shift close to a million dollars from their next pick, but they could still give that player a 7-figure bonus.  Whether that would be a sound strategy is debatable, but the fact is it's easily do-able.

There have been several mocks over the past month that have come out, and there are 3 players that have been tied with the Yankees at pick 16 most consistently: HS C Chris Betts, UCLA RHP James Kaprielian, and HS CF Garrett Whitley.  Betts and Kaprielian have been tied to the Yankees in 7 different mocks and Whitley 6.  Others mentioned include Ian Happ, Phil Bickford, and Donny Everett.

I actually developed a fun little analytic for determining the % chance Yankees take some of these players.  What I did was take the % chance a player is available when New York is picking at 16, (which I determined by using the range of potential picks as found on Fangraph's Sortable Draft Board), times the % of mentions that player was mentioned versus all other mentions.  For example, FG says the range for Chris Betts is 13-26, so there is a 78.6% chance he will be available at 16.  Out of the 35 mentions in the various mocks I have tracked, Betts was 25.7% of them.  Multiplying those two ratios together, I've theorized that there is a 20.2% chance New York takes Chris Betts.  The rest of the players are as follows:

Player	% Chnc
Chris Betts	20.2%
James Kaprielian	9.1%
Cody Ponce	8.6%
Mike Nikorak	8.1%
Phil Bickford	7.8%
Garrett Whitley	4.4%
Cornelius Randolph	2.9%
Kolby Allard	1.7%
Ian Happ	1.4%
Daz Cameron	0.2%
Trenton Clark	0.0%
Jon Harris	0.0%
Walker Buehler	0.0%
Kevin Newman	0.0%
Nate Kirby	0.0%
Kyle Funkhouser	0.0%
Brady Aiken	0.0%
TOTAL	64.4%
THE FIELD	35.6%

The first 10 players have been linked to New York at pick 16.  All of them combined have a roughly a 64.4% chance that one of them is selected by NY.  The other 7 FG feels like could go somewhere in that range, but because they have not been linked with NY the have a 0% chance.  Note that this is as of TODAY and lots could happen or be rumored between now and Monday.

That actually leads me to a brief stump speech that I will make on behalf of Brady Aiken.  Kiley McDaniel mentioned today in a blogpost on Fangraphs that there is optimism regarding the infamous elbow that led Houston to not signing Aiken last summer and subsequently needing Tommy John surgery this Spring.  Kiley states there are a number of executives he has spoken too that state the medicals are not as bad as had been believed and he now believes Aiken is firmly back in the first round.  I whole heartedly believe that if Aiken is available at 16, New York needs to take him.  In a mediocre draft such as this, where the other pitchers that are going to be taken around this sport are being described as #3 to #4 starters, New York needs to take the guy who could potentially be an ace, even if there is still an elevated risk of him not reaching that potential (or even reaching the majors AT ALL).  I likened it today to the Yoan Moncada situation from last Spring, (which I bemoaned at length).  Brady Aiken is a high, HIGH end talent and the Yankees virtually NEVER get an opportunity to acquire amateur talent such as Aiken because of the way the various mechanisms for delivering amateur talent to teams are set up.  You have to think about Aiken in this simple context: potential * probability of reaching that potential.  Even if Aiken is "riskier" than other players that New York could potentially take in this area such as James Kaprielian, his potential is so much higher than that of Kaprielian that I think the extra risk is more than offset.  Add to that the fact that New York has the compensatory pick at 30 in which they can go "safe", (if there really is such a thing in drafting amateur talent), I am CONVINCED NEW YORK SHOULD TAKE AIKEN.
 

There are four notable players the Yankees have drafted in the past that are available again this year, which I wrote about here.  Those players are Florida State OF DJ Stewart, Iona RHP Mariano Rivera, Jr., Tennessee OF Vincent Jackson, and UCLA OF Ty Moore.  It'll be interesting to see if New York selects any of them again. It happened last year when they took Jordan Foley for the second time. Considering I've been following their college careers from the start I've grown fond of them all and would like to see them all end up as Yankees. I'd expect Stewart to be a late 1st or 2nd rd pick, Rivera to go in rounds 3-5, Jackson 4-7, and Moore 6-10.

Looking at my prospect rankings spreadsheet the other day, I realized just how position player heavy it was. There are 76 guys on that list right now and amazingly only 31 of them are pitchers. That's just a little bit better than 40%, which is bad low. What makes it worse, in my mind, is that only 8 of those 30 pitchers were born in 1994 or later. So there are almost no good young pitchers in the lower levels, (except for Austin DeCarr). That's due to two reasons: 1. NYY didn't sign a single HS pitcher last year, (I don't count DeCarr bc he was post grad) and 2. Out of the 18 players they gave a bonus of $100,000 or more in last summer's IFA class, not a single one was a pitcher.

With that in mind, I would like to see NYY draft a lot of pitching this year. For the first 5 rounds it would still be prudent as always to draft best player available, but for the Yankees' sake I hope that happens to be pitching. And I'm hoping to see 2 or 3 late round over slot signings of young HS pitchers. Those kids are usually super volatile talent-wise but MAN they can they payoff big. By going just $100,000+ over slot they could unearth some diamonds like Brady Lail or Bryan Mitchell.

In the interest of full disclosure, here are links to the four rankings this compilation is based on:
1. Baseball America (Baseball America staff)
2. ESPN.com (Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen)
3. FanGraphs (Kiley McDaniel)
4. MLB Pipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo)

Hopefully you find this informative.  It's a labor of love to compile these rankings, (it's gotten easier over the years but is time consuming).  Following the draft I'll have two posts: one right afterwards giving initial grades for all 30 teams based on how they draft, then after the signing deadline I'll adjust for those who did not sign. Email me or hit me up on twitter with any questions: bembry24@gmail.com or @thebronxempire. Have a good day!