With Rafael Soriano agreeing to a deal with the Washington Nationals, the New York Yankees are in a rare position of having three draft picks, (assuming they don't sign Michael Bourn or Kyle Lohse), in the first round of this year's MLB Draft. Yahoo!'s Howard Unger pointed out that this will be the first time in 35 years that New York has that many first round picks. Because of the changes in draft rules implemented last year, New York's bonus budget will give them a unique amount of strength that they may never get again. Before I talk about their potential drafting strategies, let's look at the draft in general.
It's been said that 2013 is a down year for the draft compared to last year. Conor Glassey at Baseball America stated in a November 13th chat that this year's top two high school players, Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, would rank behind 6 other players drafted last year: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Albert Almora, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, and David Dahl. This gives some context to the level of talent we're looking at for this year's draft. Frazier and Meadows are two of five people that are generating early buzz as potential number one overall picks, along with Ryne Stanek, Sean Manaea, and Mark Appel. Naturally, this coming season will help someone separate from the pack or possibly allow someone else to enter the conversation, (Austin Wilson, perhaps?). The Houston Astros will be picking first again this year. I have to say I loved what they did last year; they found someone, (Carlos Correa), who agreed to take a portion of the full allotment which allowed Houston to use the remaining portion to draft other players with big bonus demands, (Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz). I fully expect them to do the same this year. Is it possible that Frazier or Meadows would be willing to take less than the full allotment in order to be the first overall pick? If they're projected to be the fifth or sixth pick, for instance, they could sign with Houston for more than what they were projected to get with the 6th pick and Houston still gets to save money for later in the draft. That's what I call a win-win.
Because New York has three first rounders, (even if they're all near the bottom of the round), they will have quite a large bonus pool to work with. They could go in one of two directions: try to get three players whose bonus demands are reflective of the picks used to take them, OR splurge on one player with high bonus demands and use the other two picks to sign cheaper players with little leverage to negotiate. The good thing for New York is they can let the draft come to them, so to speak, and see what falls to them at 27. For example, if Kohl Stewart, who will surely have high bonus demands because of his football scholarship to Texas A&M, misses the top 10 where he's projected and slides to the bottom of the first because other teams can't afford him, New York could grab him and meet those demands.
Looking at New York's farm system, I would argue that they should avoid two general positions in the first round: college outfielder and college catcher. The presence of Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin, and Mason Williams makes the mid-level farm system outfield especially crowded. Same goes for Gary Sanchez and the mid-level catching position. There's really only one player in the draft that I think could be an exception and that is Austin Wilson. The power-hitting Wilson has an overall game that is deserving of a top 10 pick. If he somehow gets to New York at 27, (again, due to possibly high bonus demands), it would be hard to turn him down. I really don't see that happening, but you never know. There are really no college catchers being projected in the first round that I have seen, so Sanchez won't have to worry about the competition just yet...
This is probably the first time in a few years that this can be said: New York's minor league pitching depth is woefully thin. Their top three pitching prospects are Manny Banuelos, Jose Campos, and Ty Hensley. Banuelos won't see competitive action until mid-2014 due to Tommy John surgery and Campos has been afflicted by an elbow injury that has kept him out of action since May. It's hard to sign if and when he'll return to the diamond. And Hensley has just 12 innings of professional ball to his credit, all of which was in rookie ball. So, needless to say, he's a few years away from contributing in the Bronx. With this in mind, I'd like to see New York go for a college pitcher. As of right now, the aforementioned Stanek Manaea, and Appel will all surely be off the board, as will Florida's Jonathan Crawford and Ole Miss's Bobby Wahl. Some more realistic options would be Karsten Whitson from Florida, Trevor Williams from Arizona State, Ryan Eades from LSU, Marco Gonzales from Gonzaga, and AJ Vanegas from Stanford. I'm particularly interested in Whitson, who was a top 10 pick by San Diego in 2010. His career at Florida so far has been a bit of a disappointment considering how highly he was drafted but he has still flashed the talent that the Padres saw in him three years ago. They could also go with a high school catcher or high school pitcher as there seems to be a lot of depth at those two positions.
Whether they go for one big fish or three smaller ones, New York will be setting the foundation for their future in this draft. Let's just hope it's rock solid.
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