Williams, Sanchez & Austin Sweep the Big Three Top 100 Lists

Prospect season is winding down and last week Baseball America released its Top 100 Prospects list, effectively ending the big prospect season.  BA was the last of the big three to do their Top 100 list, following Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  Texas SS prospect Jurickson Profar topped all three lists.  By most accounts, Profar is an elite fielder who can also hit for power and average.  Mayo says "He makes things look very easy in the field, using unparalleled instincts to allow his already plus range and above-average arm play up."  All three rankings include Orioles pitching prospect Dylan Bundy and Cardinals outfield prospect Oscar Taveras in their top three, with Bundy being ranked 2nd by Mayo and BA while Law ranks Taveras 2nd.  Wil Myers, formerly of the Royals and now of the Rays, ranked 4th across the board.

As for the Yankees, Tyler Austin, Gary Sanchez, and Mason Williams were all ranked on all three lists and Slade Heathcott made Law's and BA's list.  The rankings were as follows:

	Law	Mayo	BA
Sanchez	18	36	57
Williams	35	41	32
Austin	52	75	77
Heathcott	57	N/A	63

As you can see, Sanchez was the highest ranked Yankee prospect on Law and Mayo's lists.  His power behind the plate is elite and he gets on base at a high enough percentage to make pitchers challenge him.  He's been compared to Jesus Montero since day 1 and, while he may not be the all around hitter  Montero is, he appears to be a good enough defender to stick behind the dish, (as opposed to Montero who is destined to be a 1B/DH).

Coming into prospect season, I wasn't sure if Heathcott would make any of the lists but his Arizona Fall League season really boosted his status. I try not to over value performances in the AFL because hitters always dominate, but it's hard to ignore a 1.106 OPS and .388 batting average. His defense is his calling card, but if he can consistently hit .307/.378/.470 like he did in Tampa this year, he'll find himself in the top 50 of all three lists next year.

Mason Williams is the epitome of the five tool player, thus his top ranking by BA.  Mason performed well in the New York Penn league in 2010 (/349/.395/.468) and Charleston last year (.304/.359/.489) before being promoted to High A Tampa.  He got only 83 at bats before a shoulder injury ended his season.  Mason was the only one of the four top prospects to not be invited to big league camp and the shoulder injury is believed to be the main reason why.  He is expected to be healthy for the start of the season.  It will be interesting to see, if the day ever comes, who starts in center field in the Bronx between Williams and Heathcott.  My guess is the honor will go to Slade.

Last but not least, Tyler Austin quietly outperforms all expectations.  He's one of those kids taken in the mid-rounds of the draft that gets his chance and makes the most of his opportunity.  Ever since appearing in the Gulf Coast League in 2011, Tyler has never had a season average less than .319 and an OPS less than .852.  He played in 4 levels last year (rookie, low A, high A, and the AA playoffs).  Even though he is less heralded than Williams and Sanchez, I'll put my money on him making it to the big leagues first.  He was my #1 prospect at the end of 2012 and I'm pretty sure he'll be #1 at the beginning of this season.

Additionally, Keith Law listed Jose Ramirez as one of ten guys who just missed the list.  About Ramirez, Law says "[Ramirez has] filled out quite a bit in the past three years, with more than 200 pounds on his 6-3 frame, and will work at 94-98 mph with big-time life and a hard mid-80s slider."  I found this particularly surprising and I must admit, if Keith Law thinks well of a prospect it makes me think I should, too.

For anyone who's interested, I'll be releasing my Top 25 prospect list at the end of March, prior to the start of the season.  One reason I wait so long is I wait to see the affiliate assignments, which play a major role in sorting the players out.  I can tell you these four will almost certainly be the top 4 on my list and Ramirez will most likely be in the 8 - 12 range.

No way, no how Yanks should sign Lohse

Last winter, just after the Giants hoisted the World Series trophy for the second time in three years, an interesting facet of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was implemented.  Teams were given the option of offering any player who had been on their roster since the prior opening day a 1 year contract for the average one year value of the top 125 salaries in baseball, (which equated to $13.3 million).  If the player rejected the offer, any team that signed them would forfeit their highest draft pick (except for the teams with the top 10 picks, those were protected) and their former team would receive a pick at the end of the first round as compensation.  Eight players were offered and all rejected the offer, believing they can get more money on the open market.  Two players, Hiroki Kuroda and Adam LaRoche, re-signed with their original teams, (the Yankees and Nationals, respectively).  Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, and Michael Bourn have all signed with new teams.  That leaves one guy left: Kyle Lohse.

The topic of signing Kyle Lohse this hot stove season was like a whispering baby in a nursery full of screamers.  No one even knew it was there until all of the screamers had been picked up by their parents.  December became January and January gave way to February, yet Kyle Lohse remained unemployed.  Now March is knocking on the door and the lone unsigned compensation free agent is still looking for a place to go to Spring training.  When Lohse signed with St. Louis in 2008, it wasn't until March 14th, so clearly he shouldn't be overly concerned.  But clearly the payday he envisioned is not coming.  The big contract he thought he would get when he turned down $13.3 million from St. Louis, the team that helped revive his career like they've done with so many others will be not-so-big.

Understandably, Lohse has been connected with our beloved Yankees.  While New York has 6 starters for 5 spots, three of those are big question marks.  Phil Hughes has already gotten injured with a bulging disk in his back (probably out at least two weeks), David Phelps was effective but underwhelming at the same time last year, and Ivan Nova was as inconsistent as it gets.  Yankee blogger Mike Axisa (River Ave. Blues editor and contributor to CBS Sports) suggests New York add Lohse to the mix.  My response to that is: not just no but hell no.  No way, no how, under present circumstances should New York sign Lohse at the moment.  Something valuable in my house will be thrown against the wall if we sign Lohse.  If I could bury the idea of signing Kyle Lohse with a shovel, the hole would be at least 12 feet deep.  Even then I think I would keep digging.  If the idea of signing Lohse was a prison full of zombies, I'd pick up a bat and go full Rick Grimes mode on it.  The aforementioned draft pick compensation tied to signing Lohse is too steep of a price to someone who would be our #3 or #4 starter (possibly even #5 if Hughes comes back and pitches well).  Allow me to elaborate...

Kyle Lohse is a mid-rotation journey-man starter from the National League.  He strikes out no one (6.15 K/9).  The last time he pitched a full season in the AL was 2006 where he posted an ERA of 7.07 and WHIP of 1.65.  The year before: 4.18 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP.  No wonder he was traded to Cincinnati for a non-prospect.  He performed poorly there and Philadelphia before signing with St. Louis, where he quickly and emphatically rebounded.  Sound familiar?  It should.  So did the careers of Ryan Franklin, Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, etc.  I have no faith that, after a move back to the American League, Lohse could maintain the performance we saw from him as a Cardinal.

Is Kyle Lohse terrible?  No.  New York *could* use him, certainly.  I wouldn't mind seeing him pitch every fifth day for New York.  But with the current draft rules in place, in which first round draft picks are LITERALLY valuable and teams are restricted from exceeding their picks' collective value, every dollar counts.  You DO NOT give up first round draft picks for mid-rotation starters.  You give up first rounders for Josh Hamilton.  Those guys who can become the face of your franchise, you sacrifice those picks.  You don't give up the players of your future for 34 year olds who will be gone in 4 years or less.  And I'll say this: St. Louis clearly had no intention to re-sign Lohse.  And they still haven't done so, even though they will not lose a draft pick over it and have lost Chris Carpenter and have had an injury scare from Shelby Miller already.

Would it be the most pointless FA signing ever? No, that was Kei Igawa. It wouldn't be the most damaging long-term FA signing because that honor belongs to the A-Rod extension. But it would be top 2 or 3 on both lists because Lohse adds little in terms of improvement over Nova or Phelps and the loss of the draft pick will be felt for years to come. Having 2 other 1st rounders would mask it from the common eye, but every first round pick you don't make weakens your franchise.

One scenario I could see would be waiting until after the draft, when the team that signs Lohse would not have to surrender a draft pick.  Granted, I don't foresee him being out there that long, but it's possible.  He may have more leverage at that point, because the pool of teams wanting to sign Lohse seems to be dried up.  Let me pose this question: why do you think Scott Baker and Jeremy Guthrie have signed with teams and Kyle Lohse hasn't?  They're not as good...not as valuable.  It's obvious: those guys weren't tied to draft pick compensation.  After the draft, Lohse won't be either.  And there may be a team or two that are in desperate need for a starter.  This is the time of year where managers want to see what they have in camp.  They may think they can use that guy who's been performing pretty well in AAA and has some decent stuff.

Luckily it looks like Brian Cashman has no interest in signing Lohse...thank goodness.  But desperation breeds foolishness and if Hughes proves unhealthy and Nova looks as bad or worse than he did last year, the Yankees could foolishly rush out and sign Kyle Lohse.  I just hope they don't.

5 Bounce Back Candidates for 2013

It happens every year.  Winter gives way to Spring and the boys of summer make their way to Florida and Arizona to prepare for the upcoming season.  This is also the time of year when experts and amateurs such as myself release their organizational  prospect rankings and top 100 overall rankings.  For those interested, I wait until the prospects receive their affiliate assignments because that plays a significant roll in my process.  But regarding rankings in a general sense, there are always those guys who fail to live up to expectations.  It's inevitable.  If everything in a sport can be predicted with 100% accuracy, it would be a science, not a sport.

There are five players I look forward to watching this year in hopes that they rebound from disappointing 2012 seasons.  In no particular order:

Dante Bichette, Jr. (3B) - When Dante was drafted with the 51st pick in 2011, there were some analysts who thought it was a reach by the Yankees.  Heading into the draft, he was the 108th ranked player on Baseball America's Top 200 list.  He signed quickly and surprised the non-believers with a great .335/.439/.507 slash line and 48 RBIs in 52 games.  Prior to the 2012 season, he was a fringe top 100 prospect and an easy selection for the top 10 prospects in the organization.  He played in Low A at age 19 which itself is impressive, but the performance was a let down.  His slash line fell to .248/.322/.331 in 122 games with only 3 home runs.  That's 1 fewer than he had in 52 games in 2011.  But Dante works incredibly hard off the field and has stuck at 3B despite predictions that he would have to move to the outfield.  If Dante can remain at 3B and get back to 2011 production levels, he'll be back at the top of the Yankee organizational ratings and wear the crown as New York's 3B of the future.

 Miguel Andujar (3B) - Miguel received the biggest bonus of New York’s 2011 IFA class ($750,000) and started his career in the GCL, which was a sign the Yankee brass has a lot of faith in the young Dominican third-baseman. Statistically, the young man really struggled in 2012 (.232 BA, .288 OBP, .299 SLG) but I think he’ll really improve on that this year.  One key to look for is where he'll be assigned this summer.  He'll surely play rookie ball again, but if he goes back to the Gulf Coast League it would indicate Yankees management still thinks he a lot of him.  If he goes to the Dominican Summer League it would make me think they've lost some faith in him.

Ravel Santana (OF) - Ravel's story sounds very similar to that of Bichette.  He had a terrific 2011 season with a .296/.361/.568 slash line in the GCL and a .322/.440/.533 slash line in 2010 in the DSL.  Unfortunately, his 2012 was a major disappointment with a .216/.304/.289 slash line in the New York Penn short season league.  An ankle injury from 2011 may be to blame, even though he did appear in 60 of the team's 75 games.  Speed is a big part of Ravel's game and if he can return this year with the kind of speed we saw from him in the past, I think the rest of his game (power, average) will return, too.

Jose Campos (SP) - When New York acquired Jose Campos in the big Montero-Pineda trade, scouts and insiders thought he would take off in their farm system.  Unfortunately his Yankee career fizzled quickly after take off due to an elbow injury.  Mysteries surrounding the injury abound all summer long and continued when Campos failed to perform in last fall's instruction league.  However, George King of the New York Post reported earlier this month that Campos has completed his rehab assignment and will be ready to go in Spring Training.  I expect Campos to start over in Charleston and will most likely remain there through at least July.  If he stays healthy, my money is on him ranking as New York's top pitching farm hand at the end of the year.

Jake Cave (OF) - Following the 2011 draft, the players getting the most buzz were catcher Greg Bird (now a 1B) and outfielder Jake Cave, both out of high school.  They both appeared in the GCL that season, Bird in 4 games and Cave in one.  Unfortunately, that one game is still the only professional action he has seen.  Cave has battled an injury to his right knee that kept him out of action all of last year.  However, he is reporting healthy and ready to go this Spring.  He's still young (he doesn't turn 21 until December) and if he performs well in rookie ball he could put himself into the discussion for the top 10 prospects in the farm system.

Draft Interview with Matt and Kevin from Big League Futures

Recently I interviewed Matt Grabusky and Kevin Gallo from Big League Futures (www.bigleaguefutures.net) regarding the 2013 draft.  Big League Futures is an excellent site that provides amateur baseball players with as much exposure as possible.  They provide draft profiles for as many players as possible, rankings, mock drafts, observations, and news that relates to the draft.  As part of their mission they hold regional baseball showcases, the next of which is scheduled for June 1-2, 2013 at Cal State San Marcos for age groups in the 2014-2017 graduate range.  For more information, contact Matt (matt@bigleaguefutures.net) or Kevin (kevingalloblf@gmail.com).

Below is the transcript from our interview: 


What are your general thoughts about this draft and how does it compare to prior years’ drafts?

Kevin Gallo (KG):  I believe the first 5 rounds have depth but after that it becomes thin.  That being said it will be a much better draft then people originally thought and there will be some surprises.

Matt Grabusky (MG):  I don’t find this draft to be as weak as most seem to, but it is lacking in college bats.  Every college hitter outside of Kris Bryant and Colin Moran has definite questions marks.

 

The top tier of prospects for this year’s draft seems to consist of five players: college pitchers Mark Appel, Ryne Stanek, and Sean Manaea and high school outfielders Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows.  Of these five, who stands out to you as the best overall prospect?

KG:    I think they all have their pluses and minuses but if I had to pick a favorite it would be Frazier as a position player and Manaea as a pitcher and I would take Frazier over Manaea because of his outstanding tools.

MG:  A case can be made for any of the five, but I have to go with Frazier, as well.  He has the tools and passion to become a very special player.

 

Give me two or three names of players who could sneak into this top group and why?

 KG:  I think there are two Catchers that could jump into that group Reese McGuire and Jonathan Denney, both are plus defensively behind the plate and show above average to plus offensive skills.  Another player that could break into that group is Dominic Smith who’s has great bat speed and has the great offensive potential.  One last player that could jump into that group if he shows into he is health is Clinton Hollon.

 MG:  I would guess that by June at least one player jumps into that mix.  In addition to those already mentioned, I could see Justin Williams making that kind of leap.  High School righthanders Kohl Stewart and Jordan Sheffield are other possibilities.

 

If you were advising Houston’s GM, who would you suggest they take?

KG:  I would take Clint Frazier just based on his above average to plus tools across the board.

MG:  I am a believer in taking the best player on the board, for me that’s Frazier.

 

Is there a particular position that stands out as really strong?  How about one that stands out as pretty weak? 

KG:  Well the OF is very strong in College and HS.  The catchers HS class is very strong.  The MIF class is pretty weak across the board. 

MG:  The high school catching in 2013 is extremely strong.  I think the group of college pitchers is somewhat underrated at this point.  Talent in the middle of the infield is not as strong as you would like, especially in the college ranks.

 

Mark Appel is a pretty fascinating case study in my opinion.  I can’t decide how I feel about his decision to go back to school for his senior year in terms of whether it helped or hurt him.  What did you think about him not signing with Pittsburgh and do you think he could regret that decision?

KG:  I think he could regret it but not for the reasons you think.  He may regret it because it may cause him to add a year or two to get to the majors and he loses leverage in the draft. 

MG:  I understand a player wanting to get as much money as he can to sign, but with the rules the way they are now, I don’t see a winning scenario for a player who is drafted high in the first round and returns for his senior year.

 

Ryne Stanek is of particular interest to me because I live in Arkansas and am a Razorback fan.  Give me a scouting report on Ryne.  If the draft were today where do you see him going?

KG:  Stanek has two plus pitches and is developing a changeup.  Where he is going in the draft is tricky. I could see him go anywhere from #1 to number #5 but I don’t see him going passed #5.  

MG:  Stanek is my favorite pitcher in the draft.  If the Astros decide on pitching, he would be my bet for them.  He won’t last long, regardless.

 

Let me ask you about another Razorback: Dominic Ficociello.  What are your general thoughts?  Does he have the power to profile as big league first baseman?  Could he move to 2B or 3B?  In what round do you see him being taken?

MG:  I like Ficociello quite a bit, but the lack of power could definitely be an issue.  He is excellent defensively at first, but I honestly have no idea how he will handle a position switch.  I’m sure we will get to see it though, and I will be hoping for the best.

 

As a Yankee fan, I loved watching Boston struggle last year but as a result they have the 7^th overall pick, which I hate.  In addition, I see a fair amount of mock drafts predicting them take Kohl Stewart, which makes me truly jealous.  Do you see them being interested in Kohl Stewart and if not, who do you see them taking? 

KG:  We see him at #7 too ,  I don’t see him getting passed 10.

 
MG:  If not Stewart, my two guesses at this point would be Reese McGuire and Dominic Smith.

 

What’s the latest on Drew Ward, the SS from Oklahoma?  Is he going to be eligible this June and where would you rank him currently in this draft class? 

MG:  I don’t have any inside information on Ward, but my guess is he ends up eligible.  He is a wildcard for sure and I would be surprised if he made it out of the first round.

 

Guys, you see tons of scouting reports and also keep track of mock drafts.  Give me the name of a sleeper or two that aren’t getting a lot of buzz right now but that you personally love. 

KG:  Andy McGuire and Brett Morales

MG:  In high school, I think Nicholas Buckner, Jesse Roth, and  Trey Cobb all have the potential to perform above their draft slot.  In college, I am a big fan of Arizona righthander Konner Wade.  I also like Vanderbilt’s TJ Pecoraro, who is another year removed from TJ surgery, and Virginia Tech outfielder Tyler Horan.  Ryan Tella and Buck Farmer are two guys who failed to sign after being drafted last year who I thought were underrated last year.

 

Tell me about this year’s crop of high school pitchers, particularly those you see as potential first rounders.  Are there any that jump off the page to you in terms of talent?  I’ve already mentioned Kohl Stewart.  What are your thoughts on him? 

KG:  I really like Ian Clarkin, Clinton Hollon, Jordan Sheffield, Stephen Gonsavles and Kohl Stewart, all first rounders.  Kohl is an elite arm.

MG:  I would add Trey Ball to Kevin’s list.  Robert Kaminsky is likely to go in the first, as well.  Brett Morales and Jonah Wesely could get into the discussion.  Carlos Salazar is another to keep an eye on.

 

Looking at some mock drafts, it looks like high school catchers are particularly deep this year.  Jon Denney, Jeremy Martinez, and Reese McGuire are a few that are getting attention in early mock drafts.  What do you think of these three guys and are there any more you see as potential first rounders?

KG:  Denney and McGuire are both 1^st rounder and I see Martinez as a 2^nd rounder. 

MG:  Denney and McGuire are the two sure fire first rounders.  After that, a team might fall in love with Martinez, Ciuffo, Okey, or Navarreto.

 

As you know, my site focuses on the Yankees.  What do you see them doing this year?

KG:  I see the Yankees taking a pitcher and its really hard to determine who will be left.  I wouldn’t be surprised with Bobby Wahl.

MG:  So much at that point depends on who is left on the board, but I could see that being the spot for Jeremy Martinez.  In our latest mock draft. we project Robert Kaminsky.

 

New York has three OF in the mid-level of their farm system right now that are all Top 100 type players: Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, and Tyler Austin.  Considering this, would you draft either Austin Wilson or Aaron Judge if you were the GM and they were available?  Why or why not?

MG:  As I said before, I am a big believer in taking the best player on the board and letting things sort themselves out.  If that is Judge or Wilson, than that is who I would take.  I’d be surprised if Wilson slips that far though.

New York’s pitching depth in their farm system is probably the weakest it’s been in at least a decade.  I wrote recently that they should consider taking a college SP with at least one of their first three picks.  Give me the names of a few college pitchers who would possibly be available that you think would be good choices.

MG:  There are quite a few college arms that would be interesting and should sort themselves out in the spring.  If he is there when they pick, Arizona State’s Trevor Williams would be a solid choice.  His ceiling isn’t as high as the names who will go before him, but he could move quickly through the system.  Others who would make sense include Ryan Eades, Kyle Finnegan, Marco Gonzales, Aaron Blair, and Kevin Ziomek.

 

Finally, one guy that has always stood out to me in this class is Cavan Biggio.  Being the son of a future hall of famer is one thing, but this kid seems to be legit.  What do you know about Cavan and could he be a good fit for the Yankees? 

KG:  Biggio is a very good player and his value will be determined by if he can stay at 2B.

MG:  Cavan’s bat is legit and he has a really good approach for a high school hitter.  If he can play second, his future should be very bright.  He has quite a few believers among scouts.

For more of their thoughts on the draft, go to their website Big League Futures.  It's a great resource for draft enthusiasts.