Last winter, just after the Giants hoisted the World Series trophy for the second time in three years, an interesting facet of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was implemented. Teams were given the option of offering any player who had been on their roster since the prior opening day a 1 year contract for the average one year value of the top 125 salaries in baseball, (which equated to $13.3 million). If the player rejected the offer, any team that signed them would forfeit their highest draft pick (except for the teams with the top 10 picks, those were protected) and their former team would receive a pick at the end of the first round as compensation. Eight players were offered and all rejected the offer, believing they can get more money on the open market. Two players, Hiroki Kuroda and Adam LaRoche, re-signed with their original teams, (the Yankees and Nationals, respectively). Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, and Michael Bourn have all signed with new teams. That leaves one guy left: Kyle Lohse.
The topic of signing Kyle Lohse this hot stove season was like a whispering baby in a nursery full of screamers. No one even knew it was there until all of the screamers had been picked up by their parents. December became January and January gave way to February, yet Kyle Lohse remained unemployed. Now March is knocking on the door and the lone unsigned compensation free agent is still looking for a place to go to Spring training. When Lohse signed with St. Louis in 2008, it wasn't until March 14th, so clearly he shouldn't be overly concerned. But clearly the payday he envisioned is not coming. The big contract he thought he would get when he turned down $13.3 million from St. Louis, the team that helped revive his career like they've done with so many others will be not-so-big.
Understandably, Lohse has been connected with our beloved Yankees. While New York has 6 starters for 5 spots, three of those are big question marks. Phil Hughes has already gotten injured with a bulging disk in his back (probably out at least two weeks), David Phelps was effective but underwhelming at the same time last year, and Ivan Nova was as inconsistent as it gets. Yankee blogger Mike Axisa (River Ave. Blues editor and contributor to CBS Sports) suggests New York add Lohse to the mix. My response to that is: not just no but hell no. No way, no how, under present circumstances should New York sign Lohse at the moment. Something valuable in my house will be thrown against the wall if we sign Lohse. If I could bury the idea of signing Kyle Lohse with a shovel, the hole would be at least 12 feet deep. Even then I think I would keep digging. If the idea of signing Lohse was a prison full of zombies, I'd pick up a bat and go full Rick Grimes mode on it. The aforementioned draft pick compensation tied to signing Lohse is too steep of a price to someone who would be our #3 or #4 starter (possibly even #5 if Hughes comes back and pitches well). Allow me to elaborate...
Kyle Lohse is a mid-rotation journey-man starter from the National League. He strikes out no one (6.15 K/9). The last time he pitched a full season in the AL was 2006 where he posted an ERA of 7.07 and WHIP of 1.65. The year before: 4.18 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP. No wonder he was traded to Cincinnati for a non-prospect. He performed poorly there and Philadelphia before signing with St. Louis, where he quickly and emphatically rebounded. Sound familiar? It should. So did the careers of Ryan Franklin, Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, etc. I have no faith that, after a move back to the American League, Lohse could maintain the performance we saw from him as a Cardinal.
Is Kyle Lohse terrible? No. New York *could* use him, certainly. I wouldn't mind seeing him pitch every fifth day for New York. But with the current draft rules in place, in which first round draft picks are LITERALLY valuable and teams are restricted from exceeding their picks' collective value, every dollar counts. You DO NOT give up first round draft picks for mid-rotation starters. You give up first rounders for Josh Hamilton. Those guys who can become the face of your franchise, you sacrifice those picks. You don't give up the players of your future for 34 year olds who will be gone in 4 years or less. And I'll say this: St. Louis clearly had no intention to re-sign Lohse. And they still haven't done so, even though they will not lose a draft pick over it and have lost Chris Carpenter and have had an injury scare from Shelby Miller already.
Would it be the most pointless FA signing ever? No, that was Kei Igawa. It wouldn't be the most damaging long-term FA signing because that honor belongs to the A-Rod extension. But it would be top 2 or 3 on both lists because Lohse adds little in terms of improvement over Nova or Phelps and the loss of the draft pick will be felt for years to come. Having 2 other 1st rounders would mask it from the common eye, but every first round pick you don't make weakens your franchise.
One scenario I could see would be waiting until after the draft, when the team that signs Lohse would not have to surrender a draft pick. Granted, I don't foresee him being out there that long, but it's possible. He may have more leverage at that point, because the pool of teams wanting to sign Lohse seems to be dried up. Let me pose this question: why do you think Scott Baker and Jeremy Guthrie have signed with teams and Kyle Lohse hasn't? They're not as good...not as valuable. It's obvious: those guys weren't tied to draft pick compensation. After the draft, Lohse won't be either. And there may be a team or two that are in desperate need for a starter. This is the time of year where managers want to see what they have in camp. They may think they can use that guy who's been performing pretty well in AAA and has some decent stuff.
Luckily it looks like Brian Cashman has no interest in signing Lohse...thank goodness. But desperation breeds foolishness and if Hughes proves unhealthy and Nova looks as bad or worse than he did last year, the Yankees could foolishly rush out and sign Kyle Lohse. I just hope they don't.
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