The Future of Phil Hughes

Sunday, May 19th, 2013
By: Ben Embry

Last Wednesday, with only two out in the first and the visiting Mariners already up 7 runs, Yankee manager Joe Girardi walked out to the mound to relieve starter Phil Hughes of his duties.  Girardi had a look of conciliation, Hughes with the look of befuddlement and acknowledgement.  Lasting roughly 6.1 fewer innings than desired, Hughes handed the ball to the manager and walked slowly to the dugout, clearly disappointed.  Seven runs, all earned...this would NOT help his ERA, I thought.

The 26-year-old starter, once bestowed the moniker "The Phranchise", is approaching a major intersection in his career and his life.  The player ranked #4 overall prospect in 2006 by Baseball America never approached the stardom expected of him, yet clearly has a place in this league.  This offseason, at the age of 27, he will sign a long term deal with some team...the question is what team and how much?  And further, if it is not with the Yankees, what impact will it have on the team that drafted him out of high school and developed him?

His most successful big league season came arguably in 2009, the year the Yankees won their 27th world championship, when he made 44 appearances as a reliever.  He was an over-powering set-up man for Mariano Rivera, making quick work of batters with that deadly fastball-curveball combination.  It seemed like he was retiring the side in order in mere seconds he was so dominant.  And in the beginning of 2010 he moved to the rotation and earned an All-Star appearance but by the end of the season he sported a pedestrian 4.19 ERA.  Now we're 2+ seasons past his lone All-Star year and it seems like a distant memory.  ERAs for 2011 and 2012 were 5.79 and 4.23, respectively and as of the time of this blog his ERA for 2013 is 5.88.  His career ERA is a robust 4.48.

All of the talk of extensions for Robinson Cano have overshadowed the impending free agency of Hughes.  He's one of several quality but not overwhelming free agent pitchers, including Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza and Dan Haren.  There's no Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez, (thanks to recent big money extensions) or Clayton Kershaw, (he's coming in 2015) so there's not an obvious "priority guy" who will gobble up serious bucks and take one potential suitor out of the mix for Phil.  But when you compare Phil to these guys statistically, he still falls short in virtually every way.  See table:

Name	Age	Career ERA	Career WAR	Last 3+ ERA	Last 3+ WAR
Phil Hughes	27	4.48	9.9	4.60	5.8
Tim Lincecum	29	3.37	27	3.79	9.4
Jon Lester	29	3.71	26.8	3.75	13.9
Josh Johnson	29	3.23	21.4	3.04	11.3
Matt Garza	30	3.84	15.7	3.68	7.5
Dan Haren	33	3.69	37.7	3.82	12.3
Roy Halladay	36	3.37	67.9	3.20	16
Average	30.4	3.67	29.5	3.70	10.9
Median	29	3.69	26.8	3.75	11.3

When you break this group down statistically, there's no doubt who comes out "on bottom".  It's Phil Hughes.  But if you drill down and look at each other counterpart, they all have warts.  Lincecum and Haren have fallen off the map in terms of effectiveness.  Johnson, Garza, and Halladay all have serious injury issues.  And Lester, though seemingly a "good guy", was also at the center of the Red Sox locker room implosion that led to the ouster of Terry Francona.  So while he hasn't performed as well as his comps historically, his future isn't as murky, either.  And let's not forget the one area that he's favored in, though it's an important one: age.  He's at least 2 years younger than all of his other free agent counterparts.

One other factor in Hughes's favor is that he's performed in the AL East and the scrutiny of playing in the New York market. So his numbers are likely to improve if he were to move to the NL or even to the AL Central where the divisional line-ups are not so fierce. And if I'm Yankees management, I like that Hughes has proven to be able to handle the NY market. Taking his somewhat weak numbers into account, at least there's potentially no concern that he'll perform worse once playing in the tough New York market. It's one of those "better the devil you know than the devil you don't" situations.

Two guys with comparable situations heading into their free agency offseason were Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse from 2012.  Edwin Jackson was 29 when he signed with the Cubs for 4 years / $52 million.  He had won more games than Phil and compiled more WAR over his last 4 seasons, but Phil had better strike out rates and lower WHIP.  See below for a breakdown:

	Hughes	Jackson	Advantage
Career ERA	4.48	4.40	Jackson	0.08
Career K/9	7.61	6.88	Hughes	0.73
Career WHIP	1.31	1.40	Hughes	0.09
Career WAR	9.9	15.8	Jackson	5.90
Career Wins	54	70	Jackson	16.00
Last 4 ERA	4.60	3.98	Jackson	0.62
Last 4 K/9	8.40	7.29	Hughes	1.11
Last 4 WHIP	1.32	1.35	Hughes	0.04
Last 4 WAR	5.8	9.9	Jackson	4.10

So the 4 years and $13 million per year AAV serves as a decent baseline.  You may shave $1 million off the AAV because WAR and ERA for Hughes are worse but you could also add a year because he's younger.  So maybe Phil's a 5 years and $12 million per year guy.  Now in regards to Lohse, I included him because he had the added factor of having been offered a qualifying contract by St. Louis, meaning he had the loss of a first round pick tagged to him for whoever eventually signed him.  That's something Phil could possibly face this winter, (more on that later).  Ok, let's look at Lohse:

	Hughes	Lohse	Advantage
Career ERA	4.48	4.45	Lohse	0.03
Career K/9	7.61	5.63	Hughes	1.98
Career WHIP	1.31	1.40	Hughes	0.09
Career WAR	9.9	23.8	Lohse	13.90
Career Wins	54	118	Lohse	64.00
Last 4 ERA	4.60	3.94	Lohse	0.66
Last 4 K/9	8.40	5.70	Hughes	2.70
Last 4 WHIP	1.32	1.27	Lohse	0.04
Last 4 WAR	5.8	7	Lohse	1.20

Career comparisons, at least in terms of the WAR and wins, are tough because Lohse pitched 11 seasons heading into his FA compared to Phil's 6+ at this point.  But the rates are fair game.  Similarly to that of Jackson, Lohse has superior ERA but Hughes strikes out more and has a better WHIP over his career, (though Lohse had really improved on WHIP his last 4 seasons and was slightly better than Phil in that regard).  Now Lohse signed for 3 years and $33 million total, ($11 million AAV for the mathematically challenged).  Lohse's age was as much as a factor as the quallifying offer; he was 34 last winter.  So again, Hughes's age is a check in his column.  When compared to Lohse's and Jackson's deals, I think Phil could fairly expect 5 years and $55 million, ($11 million AAV).

With all of this information, what would I decide to do if I were the Yankees GM?  For one, I hold him until the end of the season.  As of this moment, New York is leading Boston by 1 game in the division and is just 1 game behind Texas for best record in the AL.  so they're not going to be in selling mode this summer.  And at the end of the season I would make him a qualifying offer of roughly $14 million.  Now remember I said earlier I think $11 million is a fair AAV for Hughes, which is less than the $14 million.  As the Yankees general manager, the qualifying offer is a win-win situation.  If he accepts the offer, I'm only paying him $3 million more than I think he's worth for the one season.  That's not much in the whole scheme of things.  And if he declines then I'm in line for a comp pick when he signs with someone else.  I would fully expect him to decline, because even though the quallifying offer is $3 million more for 2014, it's significantly less in terms of total guaranteed value he'll expect on the open market, which is the number that matters the most.  Now I would negotiate in earnest and I'd hope to get him for the 5 year $55 million price tag.  But if he goes another direction, I would take my comp pick and find another starter to sign and I'd be ok with that.

So in closing, Phil's future is relatively promising.  He's looking at a $50 million + contract this season, whether it's from New York or elsewhere.  I hope he sticks around honestly, because even though I'm a draftnik who covets draft picks like the Cookie Monster covets chocolate chip cookies, I've grown fond of the Phranchise, even if he hasn't been as philthy as we were originally expecting.