2013 MLB Draft: Final Compilation Board

Wednesday, June 5, 2013
By: Ben Embry

Full disclosure: I am not a scout. I only know what I read. This compilation is based purely on 6 services that I trust the most: Baseball America, Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel, Big League Futures, Chris Crawford and Jonathan Mayo. I have no opinion in it beyond the writers I chose as inputs. Naturally, I have favorite prospects the same as anyone else, but that favoritism had no impact on this board. In previous additions I served as a tiebreak but I removed myself from the equation and let the inputs speak for themselves.

As a reminder, here's a description of the board: I've taken six highly respected scouts and entered their rankings of the top 2013 draft prospects at four different intervals over the past 8 months. Call it consensus building. I've weighted heavily (like 99.4%) towards the most recent inputs. There's no weighting between writers; I used to weight them but I've chopped it down from 15 to 6 really strong writers so the weighting is no longer called for.

This board has evolved quite a bit over the past 12 months and I'm quite proud of it, even while I fully admit to it having no opinion of my own. In fact, that's one of the elements I'm most proud of because there's no bias or BS from the creator here. I am merely a packager and conveyor of scouting analysis. If anything, my expertise is in the compilation and presentation of data, not the evaluation of talent. Hopefully readers will find it to be a useful draft day tool as I do. Ok, here's the board (with my thoughts on the results to follow):

Rnk	Name	Pos	School
1	Mark Appel	SP	Stanford
2	Jonathan Gray	SP	Oklahoma
3	Kris Bryant	3B	San Diego
4	Clint Frazier	OF	H.S.
5	Kohl Stewart	SP	H.S.
6	Colin Moran	3B	UNC
7	Austin Meadows	OF	H.S.
8	Braden Shipley	SP	Nevada
9	Trey Ball	P/OF	H.S.
10	Reese McGuire	C	H.S.
11	Dominic Smith	1B	H.S.
12	Hunter Renfroe	OF	Miss St.
13	JP Crawford	SS	H.S.
14	Ryne Stanek	SP	Arkansas
15	Sean Manaea	SP	Ind St
16	DJ Peterson	1B	New Mex
17	Austin Wilson	OF	Stanford
18	Alex Gonzalez	SP	Oral Rob
19	Nick Ciuffo	C	H.S.
20	Marco Gonzales	SP	Gonzaga
21	Jonathan Denney	C	H.S.
22	Aaron Judge	OF	Fresno St
23	Hunter Harvey	SP	H.S.
24	Phil Bickford	SP	H.S.
25	Eric Jagielo	3B/OF	N Dame
26	Billy McKinney	OF	H.S.
27	Chris Anderson	SP	Jack'ville
28	Ian Clarkin	SP	H.S.
29	Rob Kaminsky	SP	H.S.
30	Tim Anderson	SS	East C CC
31	Kyle Serrano	SP	H.S.
32	Jonathon Crawford	SP	Florida
33	Phillip Ervin	OF	Samford
34	Andrew Thurman	SP	UC Irvine
35	Connor Jones	SP	H.S.
36	Aaron Blair	SP	Marshall
37	Matt Krook	SP	H.S.
38	Ryan Boldt	OF	H.S.
39	Alex Balog	SP	San Fran.
40	Ryan Eades	SP	LSU
41	Hunter Dozier	3B	SF Austin
42	Hunter Green	SP	H.S.
43	Josh Hart	OF	H.S.
44	Andrew Mitchell	SP	TCU
45	Jason Hursh	SP	Okl St.
46	Bobby Wahl	SP	Ole Miss
47	Dustin Peterson	3B	H.S.
48	Michael Lorenzen	OF/RP	CS Fuler.
49	Travis DeMerritte	3B	H.S.
50	Devin Williams	SP	H.S.
51	Tom Windle	SP	Minn.
52	Blake Taylor	SP	H.S.
53	Kevin Ziomek	SP	Vandy
54	Trevor Williams	SP	Arz St.
55	Cord Sandberg	OF	H.S.
56	Chad Pinder	SS	Va. Tech
57	Jacob Brentz	SP	H.S.
58	Garrett Williams	SP	H.S.
59	Jordan Paroubeck	OF	H.S.
60	Cavan Biggio	3B/2B	H.S.
61	Oscar Mercado	SS	H.S.
62	Andrew Knapp	C	California
63	Ryan McMahon	3B	H.S.
64	Chris Okey	C	H.S.
65	Riley Unroe	SS	H.S.
66	Teddy Stankiewicz	SP	JUCO
67	Kent Emanuel	SP	UNC
68	Jared King	OF	K State
69	Cody Reed	SP	JUCO
70	Myles Smith	P	Lee
71	Dillon Overton	SP	Oklahoma
72	Andy McGuire	SS	H.S.
73	Michael O'Neill	OF	Michigan
74	Clinton Hollon	SP	H.S.
75	Wil Crowe	SP	H.S.
76	JaCoby Jones	2B/OF	LSU
77	Dustin Driver	SP	H.S.
78	Colby Suggs	RP	Arkansas
79	Trey Masek	SP	Tex Tech
80	Corey Knebel	RP	Texas
81	Scott Frazier	SP	Pepper.
82	Garrett Hampson	2B	H.S.
83	Matt McPhearson	OF	H.S.
84	Justin Williams	OF	H.S.
85	Christian Arroyo	SS	H.S.
86	Stephen Wrenn	OF	H.S.
87	Carlos Salazar	SP	H.S.
88	AJ Vanegas	RP	Stanford
89	Stuart Turner	C	Ole Miss
90	Rob Zastryzny	P	Missouri
91	Zach Collins	1B/C	H.S.
92	Trey Michalczewski	3B	H.S.
93	Tucker Neuhaus	SS	H.S.
94	Andrew Church	SP	H.S.
95	Rowdy Tellez	1B	H.S.
96	Jan Hernandez	SS	H.S.
97	AJ Puk	SP	H.S.
98	Dom Nunez	C	H.S.
99	Chandler Eden	SP	H.S.
100	Mason Smith	OF	H.S.
101	Tyler Danish	SP/3B	H.S.
102	Tyler Skulina	P	Kent St
103	Tyler O'Neill	C	H.S.
104	Victor Caratini	3B	JUCO
105	John Sternagel	3B	H.S.
106	Chris Rivera	SS	H.S.
107	Ivan Wilson	OF	H.S.
108	Zane Evans	C	Ga Tech
109	Cal Quantrill	P	H.S.
110	Drew Ward	1B	H.S.
111	Terry McClure	OF	H.S.
112	Jordan Sheffield	SP	H.S.
113	Robert Tyler	SP	H.S.
114	Brett Morales	SP	H.S.
115	Cody Bellinger	1B	H.S.
116	Buck Farmer	SP	Ga Tech
117	Daniel Gibson	P	Florida
118	Sean Brady	SP	H.S.
119	Nick Eicholtz	SP	H.S.
120	Jake Sweaney	C	H.S.
121	Sam Moll	SP	Memphis
122	Stephen Tarpley	SP	JUCO
123	Jake Johansen	SP	H.S.
124	Matt Oberste	1B	Oklahoma
125	Jonah Wesely	SP	H.S.
126	Akeem Bostick	SP	H.S.
127	Jeremy Martinez	C	H.S.
128	Cory Thompson	SS	H.S.
129	Dan Slania	RP	N Dame
130	Jimmie Sherfy	P	Oregon
131	Adam Plutko	SP	UCLA
132	Aaron Brown	RP	Pepper.
133	Michael Wagner	RP	San Diego
134	Alec Hansen	SP	H.S.
135	Stephen Gonsalves	SP	H.S.
136	Ryon Healy	1B	Oregon
137	Brian Ragira	1B	Stanford
138	Kyle Crockett	P	Virginia
139	Thomas Milone	SS	H.S.
140	Austin Kubitza	SP	Rice
141	Dylan Covey	SP	San Diego
142	Matt Boyd	SP	Ore St.
143	John Riley	C	H.S.
144	Nick Longhi	OF	H.S.
145	Dace Kime	P	Louisville
146	Casey Shane	SP	H.S.
147	Kyle Finnegan	SP	Texas St
148	Trevor Clifton	SP	H.S.
149	Trae Arbet	SS	H.S.
150	Chris Kohler	SP	H.S.
151	William Abreu	OF	H.S.
152	Nic Pivetta	P	JUCO
153	Corey Littrell	SP	Kentucky
154	Ben Lively	P	Cent Fla
155	Casey Meisner	SP	H.S.
156	Brandon Bixler	SP	Fla GCU
157	JB Woodman	OF	H.S.
158	Thomas Hatch	SP	H.S.
159	Logan Shore	SP	H.S.
160	Tony Rizzotti	RP	Tulane
161	Johneshwy Fargas	OF	H.S.
162	JD Underwood	P	JUCO
163	Daniel Palka	OF/SP	Ga Tech
164	Jake Bauers	1B	H.S.
165	Jacob Nottingham	C	H.S.
166	DJ Snelten	SP	Minn.
167	Trey Williams	3B	JUCO
168	Austin Nicely	SP	H.S.
169	Brian Navarreto	C	H.S.
170	Karsten Whitson	SP	Florida
171	Zach Farmer	SP	H.S.
172	Konner Wade	SP	Arizona
173	Jacob May	OF	Coast Car
174	Corey Ray	OF	H.S.
175	Eric Laurer	SP	H.S.
176	Andrew Dunlap	SP	H.S.
177	Barrett Astin	RP	Arkansas
178	Kevin Davis	SP	H.S.
179	Ty Young	3B	Louisville
180	Dane McFarland	SP	H.S.
181	Keegan Thompson	SP	H.S.
182	Mike Mayers	S	Ole Miss
183	Colin Bray	OF	Faulkner
184	Ryan Cordell	OF	Liberty
185	Ben Wetzler	SP	Ore St.
186	John Simms	RP	Rice
187	Conrad Gregor	1B	Vandy
188	Chris Oakley	SP	H.S.
189	Derick Beauprez	SP	H.S.
190	Josh Dezse	RP/1B	Ohio St

These are based on the rankings as of 6/5/2013 at 5:00pm. If they get changed between now and the draft...oh well! I'm not changing it again! I've spent an insane amount of hours configuring this thing and entering rankings/mocks and going forward (2014 and beyond) I've set it up where it will take significantly less time. I'll still do it because I love it and I think I'm onto something but its not worth the hours it's taken of my life going forward.

Mark Appel has been on top of draft rankings since the day last Summer he announced he would return to Stanford.  In the Fall there was a group of other players who jockeyed for a shot at overtaking him, (Manaea, Clint Frazier, Meadows, Stanek) but he's always pretty much been the guy.  Even in the Spring, as Gray was regularly popping 100 and Bryant was on his way to a 31 HR season, Appel stayed atop the mountain.

The Yankees have been linked to a dozen or more players seemingly since the end of April.  That's understandable given their position in the draft.  There wasn't much of a common thread connecting them so getting a sense of which way the Yankees would go has been really difficult.  They could go young or old, pitching or hitting.  It's really up in the air.  And honestly that's the way it should be.

New York is in an incredible position right now.  They have the flexibility to take 3 good, back of the first round talents or they can grab a top of the first round talent who is sliding due to high bonus demands.  The Yankees have almost $5.2 million worth of picks at the end of the first.  I would venture to guess that, if they so choose, they could pick someone with demands as high as $5 million and meet those demands if they think he's worth it.  That would include all but 2 or 3 guys.

To me the draft rankings and how they could predict where players will go is akin to fantasy baseball. You have rankings that say "player x is the 60th best player available" and you're like "Sweet! He should be available when I pick 54th"; well, not necessarily. For instance, I have Riley Unroe ranked 65th, but I'm hearing late 1st rd buzz so he could actually go a lot sooner than where he's ranked. Or a lot later, for that matter.

Depending on how things shake out, the team's top 10 prospect list will probably only increase by 1-2 names. And they're only like to add 1 new top 100 overall prospect, if any. Reason being is, despite having 3 1st rd picks, they're all at the back. Take last year as an illustration. Yankees took Ty Hensley with the 30th pick and where we were drafting that was pretty good value. So at the end of the year Ty made pretty much all of the system top 10 lists. But mostly he was towards the bottom (7-10 range basically). So carry that forward, the players we're likely to get at 26, 32, 33 are likely to be in this same 7-10 range and in that case there will only be room for 1-2 of them. And regarding top 100, again lets look at the Hensley example. Ty didn't make any of the lists that I saw. And on BA, he received not one single vote, (which I found egregious and got Jim Callis to agree with me on twitter that he deserved at least one vote). But thinking about it logically, no one in the baseball writing industry will add 26+ recent draftees to their top 100 list, so if NYY is going o get anyone that caliber, it's going to be because of the off chance that someone from the top 12 or so players slid for some reason.

Here are some players I like that are floating around the Yankees picks through round 4:

1st Rd.	Billy McKinney
1st Rd.	Rob Kaminsky
1st Rd.	Jordan Paroubeck
2nd Rd.	Mason Smith
3rd Rd.	Jonah Wesely
4th Rd.	Willie Abreu

There's a lot of HS OF on that list, so I'm not necessarily saying I'd like for the Yankees to draft 4 HS OF with their first 6 picks.  I'm just saying I think, for where they're ranked, these are some great players that I hope the Yankees are looking at.

As I've tweeted a couple dozen times, I'll be pulling for Stanek to fall to the 26th pick.  Call it a unique blend of homerism that is 1 part Yankee fan, 1 part Razorback fan.  It's unlikely to happen, I know, but a part of the fun of watching is hoping someone miraculously falls in your team's lap.  He's been projected to go in that mid-first round range and any disruption or chaos prior to that could cause him to slide.  I'll be crossing my fingers until his name gets called.

Ok, so I'll be tweeting like a mad man tomorrow night and on Friday I'll have a recap with scores for how the teams did in the first 2 rounds, (set up a little scoring system).  Follow me at @thebronxempire for all of my tweets.