It's been 26 days since I published my second comp board for this years MLB Draft and we're now 73 days from the big day. Even though we're not very far removed from my last comments and still 2.5 months from the draft, there have been some changes that I feel compelled to address.
The first is a change at the top. For two years, Carlos Rodon has been the consensus top player for the 2014 draft. He would have been the best player in last year's draft pool. Prior to the start of this season, it was arguable he was 1 of the 10 best players not in the major leagues. But the bandwagon has been thinning out with a couple notable names taking a step back. Keith Law and Chris Crawford, both who write for ESPN.com, have anointed California prep lefty Brady Aiken the best prospect. Both had Rodon the best player prior to this season, and to different degrees are contending Rodon is not the same prospect they thought he was 6 weeks ago. They're citing command mainly, and Law says his slider, which has been an 80 on the 20-80 scale, is now a 60 or a 70 and his fastball is looking average. Law is a little more fervent in his opinion while Crawford seemed to say he thinks Rodon will bounce back before draft day.
The more interesting situation is what the rest of the industry will have to say soon. Reading sites like Baseball America lately, it seems they believe Rodon has maintained his grip on the top spot. They've referred to him more as "unlucky" than "less dominant". I think there could be a fracturing of opinion on Rodon by the top sites where as previously he was the unanimously anointed best player.
As for the Yankees angle, it seems my fascination with one prospect will have to be short lived but in its place will be intrigue in an entire class of prospects. Last post I mentioned Dylan Crase, a prep righty from Georgia, was the player I hoped would land in the Bronx. This was based on him bring ranked 38th on my previous comp board, which is within a range that is reasonable to believe he could be available when New York makes their first pick at #47. But upon further review, it looks less likely that Cease and the Yankees are a good match. The main reason is that most people believe he's actually a top 15 talent and some are ranking him as such while others are hesitating because he hasn't been pitching because of a sore elbow. This mix of opinions caused him to be drug down in the rankings from where he justifiably should be. And it's still entirely possible that he will not have been selected when NY's first pick rolls around. But the fact that he is so well regarded coupled with his availability will be due to some health questions, plus the issue of his commitment to Vanderbilt, (historically very tough to sign), all make it hard to see anyone being able to sign him in the second round. He would most likely honor his commitment to Vanderbilt and re-enter the draft in 3 years.
So instead of wanting New York to sign Cease, or any one specific person for that matter, I'm going to just hope they sign one of the multitude of good young HS arms that will most likely be available. This class is LOADED with quality prep pitchers and any ranking or mock draft you read will tell you at least a few of them will be available when NY picks. It won't be Aiken, or Tyler Kolek, or Grant Holmes. They'll all be gone. Luis Ortiz probably will be, too. And as for Cease or fellow Vandy commit Touki Toussaint, I don't believe they'll be signable. But that still leaves guys like Sean Reid-Foley, Cameron Varga, Keaton McKinney, Kodi Meideros, Jacob Nix, Michael Kopech, Mac Marshall, Scott Blewett, Alex Verdugo, and on and on and on. It's crazy! In one sense, the Yankees are lucky in that in a year they do not have a pick before the second round, they can still have a shot at one of these talented kids. I'd still rather have a pick in the first AND second, but we should be able to live with what we end up with.
Again, I will do another comp board at the end of April and one last one at the end of May. I just wanted to give you these couple updates since I blogged last.
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