Yankees Bungled Moncada Deal

by: Ben Embry

It's been over a week since Boston stole Yoan Moncada from the Yankees, and I say stole because it's become apparent after the fact that Moncada was New York's to lose.  FanGraph prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel has covered the story closely, both before the signing and after.  This post will lean heavily on his take, which I'm comfortable with because he is so close to the story.  He's spent time with Moncada, interviewed him for his podcast, and has monitored this whole thing closer than anyone from day one.

A lot of buzz favored New York in the run up to the signing, some of which was conjecture and speculation. But by the time MLB declared Moncada a free agent, (the process of which was almost a fiasco in and of itself), it was becoming clear New York was one of the two legitimate favorites, (along with the Dodgers), to sign the Cuban phenom.  At this point I'm sure you're saying "But what about Boston?  They were ones that eventually signed him."  The reason Boston won the bidding comes down to two facts regarding the pre-signing favorites: 1] New York blatantly lowballed their offer, and 2] the Dodgers did not want to sign Moncada during this IFA signing period.  LA actually made the highest bid at $35 million but it was contingent upon Moncada waiting until July 2nd so that the team could rack up other big money prospects as well.  NYY and LAD took themselves out of it, (in different ways), which allowed Boston to sneak in there and win the sweepstakes.

The following screencaps are taken from McDaniel's prospect chat last Friday.  (Note that the question is below the answer in the second and third screencaps):

The first screencap addresses the issue that is the most undeniable for management: how are a bunch of 16 year olds worth $34 million but a top 10 or 20 overall prospect not worth $60 million? This position is really indefensible and speaks to an inconsistent philosophy from management.  I fully agree with Kiley's point that well run teams aren't scared of overpaying if they have conviction in their player evaluations...especially if they're flush with cash like NY.

The second screencap illustrates New York badly misjudged the situation, which is not encouraging going forward.  Andrew Marchand asserted last week that Moncada preferred New York, which is probably due to Moncada's affinity for Cano when he played for NY (as Kiley revealed).  What they should have done was shot for the moon with a $35 million bid, the difference of which is pretty minimal when compared to their final offer, (even after taxes).  They didn't play to win, to borrow a sports metaphor...they played not to lose and it burned them badly.  The third screencap highlights the severity of the mistake of allowing Moncada to go to prospect rich, hated rival Boston.  It's a true double whammy.

While you could say Moncada is just one guy and it's not the end of the world, it speaks to an overarching problem with the franchise.  In my opinion it clearly shows the Yankees have trouble making decisions and don't have a consistent philosophy.  This is also evidenced by their actions last winter of forfeiting three 1st round draft picks, followed by an assertion that they would make the farm system their priority, (hard to do when you're not drafting until the 50s).  Sprinkle in both innovatively blowing away the competition in last Summer's IFA market and then lowballing the "best 19 year old in the world" as Kiley put it and you have an INCREDIBLY INCONSISTENT policy.  There is no telling how the team will act going forward, which is very disconcerting.

I understand if Yankees fans are tired of hearing about Moncada and just want to put it behind them.  I feel that way too but before we do I feel it's important fans know more about what happened because management, (Hal in particular), has really been misleading and not forthcoming.  Yankee fans, as blessed as we are with history of success, are also burdened with a high price of fandom. I can speak from personal experience traveling to several parks to watch New York play, the other teams in the league charge a premium when the Yankees come to town.  And everybody knows NYY charges the highest prices for home game tickets.  So in my opinion they owe us...they owe us sound decisions as they build this team for not only today but tomorrow as well.

Seven stages of Moncada Grief

by: Ben Embry

I first heard of Yoan Moncada back in September listening to Kiley McDaniel's podcast on fangraphs. Since then, I've obsessed with this player who New York could obviously use: a 19 yr old, 5-tool IF prospect who would contend for the number 1 pick of the draft if he were subject to it. But he wasn't...anybody with a Brinks truck full of cash could have him. He was custom-made for the Yankees! The team had just destroyed the July 2nd IFA signing period, rather innovatively I must say.  They were surely going to go hard for this kid. So I obsessed over the idea and as the weeks and months went by, it did appear New York would be aggressive and try to lock this kid up...until they didn't. News broke early today that Moncada would sign with Boston for just $31.5M, on the very low end of what had been speculated. Word had been that it'd be in the 30s or 40s, so when I heard New York bid just $25M, I went into a Twitter rage.  I present to you the seven stages of Moncada grief:

Shock - 

Frustration - 

Anger -

Confusion (aka weirdly praising Boston) - 

Mellowing -

Focusing on something positive -

Moving on -

That was a rough hour-and-a-half right there! Guess it's a good thing I don't drink...

Andrew Miller: not just a LOOGY

by: Ben Embry

The Yankees reportedly signed LHP Andrew Miller to a 4 yr, $36M contract yesterday. New York's first big signing of the offseason, (sorry Chris Young), had been heavily rumored for at least a week.  I have to say I'm ok with the deal; don't love it but don't hate it. A 4 yr deal for a reliever is probably at least 1 year too long.  This is especially true considering he has no experience as a closer and isn't expected to be one for New York, (at least not in the traditional sense).  Still, I like the AAV of $9M and don't think this would be a huge albatross if he regresses this last year or two.

One thing I've preached this offseason is that New York needed depth and versatility instead of big money, high profile free agents. I feel like Miller gives them the former in the bullpen as a lefty that you can feel comfortable with facing righties.  He probably could close and the idea of him and RHP phenom Dellin Betances sharing the closer duties based on matchup is intriguing.  Having LHP Justin Wilson allows Manager Joe Girardi to save Miller for the 8th or 9th.  With LHP Jacob Lindgren the Yankees could have 3 LHP in the bullpen at some point this season with Miller and hopefully Lidgren being able to face righty batters.  It also doesn't hurt that Miller's experience primarily comes from pitching in the AL East.

What this means for David Robertson is interesting.  GM Brian Cashman has said this doesn't close the door on D-Rob returning. I believe that but probably makes it less likely. What it gives them is the leverage to let him walk, which I think they would prefer to signing him to a Papelbon-like contract.  And I think they'd like that compensatory draft pick when Robertson signs with someone else. It would give them an excuse for forfeiting their own 1st rd draft pick on someone like Max Scherzer, though that's not a line that I'm going to buy.  First rd draft picks are too valuable in this day and age, and saying "Hey don't worry about us losing the 18th draft pick because we still have that one that'll be in the low 30s" doesn't hold water for me.  Here's an idea: why not keep both?

Goodbye Greeney, hello DiDi

by: Ben Embry

According to several outlets, the Yankees traded 2014 rotation revelation Shane Greene for young Diamondback shortstop DiDi Gregorious. Greeney is actually going to Detroit as part of a 3 team trade, but for New York it's essentially a 1-for-1 swap. Greeney for DiDi.

This move answers the question: "Who follows Derek Jeter as the next Yankees shortstop?" My armchair analysis can be summed up this way: "Eh." Trading a 4th or 5th starter with 5 yrs of control for an average SS with 5 years of control doesn't get you real excited. The Yankees have been linked with Gregorious in trade rumors for at least a year makes me think NY genuinely likes Gregorious so there's that.

The implications are interesting. Jon Heyman tweeted this means NY will be looking to add 2 more starters this winter, which is a thought I had myself. To me, that makes the rumored possibility of signing Max Scherzer a little more likely.  I'm on record with my opposition to such a move, which isn't enough of an improvement to make NY a serious contender and thus not worth the draft pick or long term commitment.  It's essentially mortgaging the future to make the team only an above-average team as opposed to average.  If I can say anything in support of signing Scherzer, it's that if there's anyone worth forfeiting a draft pick this winter, it's the former Cy Young winner and legitimate ace.  Still, count me as a member of the "Don't sign Scherzer" camp.

Anyways, such a move is still a ways down the road and may never happen. What has happened is NY finally answered the question: "Who will be saddled with the unenviable task of trying to replace Derek Jeter?"  Congratulations DiDi! 

2015 Compilation MLB Draft Board #1

by: Ben Embry

It's finally that time of year when I issue the first compilation ranking for the next MLB Draft.  It's a little thing I like to do to stay up on who the big names are in the draft pool.  What I do is take rankings from 5 different sources that I trust the most on the subject of draft prospects and I compile them into one board.  I'll publish links below that will have last year's boards if anyone's interested in seeing those.

Ok, here's the first 2015 board:

Rnk	Name	Pos	School
1	Brendan Rodgers	SS	H.S.
2	Brady Aiken	SP	JUCO
3	Michael Matuella	SP	Duke
4	Walker Buehler	SP	Vandy
5	Kyle Funkhouser	SP	Louisville
6	Kolby Allard	SP	H.S.
7	Dansby Swanson	SS	Vandy
8	Nathan Kirby	SP	Virginia
9	Daz Cameron	OF	H.S.
10	Nick Plummer	OF	H.S.
11	Justin Hooper	SP	H.S.
12	Alex Bregman	SS/2B	LSU
13	Carson Fulmer	SP	Vandy
14	Ian Happ	2B/OF	Cincinnati
15	Trenton Clark	OF	H.S.
16	Cody Ponce	SP	Cal Poly P
17	Kyle Cody	SP	Kentucky
18	Chris Betts	C	H.S.
19	Ashe Russell	SP	H.S.
20	Mike Nikorak	SP	H.S.
21	Phil Bickford	SP	JUCO
22	Jake Lemoine	SP	Houston
23	Riley Ferrell	RP	TCU
24	DJ Stewart	OF	Fla State
25	Richie Martin	SS	Florida
26	Alonzo Jones	2B/OF	H.S.
27	Beau Burrows	SP	H.S.
28	Dillon Tate	SP	UC Santa B
29	Gio Brusa	OF	Pacific
30	Garrett Whitley	OF	H.S.
31	Kyle Tucker	OF	H.S.
32	Kyler Murray	SS	H.S.
33	Chris Shaw	1B	Boston Col
34	Chandler Day	SP	H.S.
35	James Kaprielian	SP	UCLA
36	Tyler Jay	RP	Illinois
37	Demi Orimoloye	OF	H.S.
38	Austin Smith	SP	H.S.
39	Alex Young	SP	TCU
40	Luken Baker	SP/1B	H.S.
41	Ryan Cole McKay	SP	H.S.
42	Donny Everett	SP	H.S.
43	Cornelius Randolph	3B	H.S.
44	Marcus Brakeman	SP	Stanford
45	Kyle Molnar	SP	H.S.
46	Joe McCarthy	OF	Virginia
47	Triston McKenzie	SP	H.S.
48	Kevin Newman	SS	Arizona
49	Greg Pickett	OF	H.S.
50	Steven Duggar	OF	Clemson
51	Juan Hillman	SP	H.S.
52	Jon Harris	SP	Mo. State
53	Joe DeMers	SP	H.S.
54	Andrew Suarez	SP	Miami
55	Cadyn Grenier	SS	H.S.
56	Mikey White	SS	Alabama
57	Kep Brown	OF	H.S.
58	Skye Bolt	OF	UNC
59	Tate Matheny	OF	Mo. State
60	Jahmai Jones	2B/OF	H.S.
61	Nick Shumpert	SS	H.S.
62	Christian Stewart	OF	Tennessee
63	Bryce Denton	OF/3B	H.S.
64	Mitchell Hansen	OF	H.S.
65	Corey Zangari	SP	H.S.
66	Daniel Reyes	OF	H.S.
67	Garrett Wolforth	C	H.S.
68	Josh Staumont	SP	Azusa Pac.
69	Donnie Dewees	OF	UNF
70	Cole Sands	SP	H.S.
71	Cornelius Randolph	3B	H.S.
72	Kyri Washington	OF	Longwood
73	Ryan Perez	SP	H.S.
74	Gray Fenter	SP	H.S.
75	Thomas Szapuski	SP	H.S.

It looks and sounds as if the top 3 players in this year's draft are HS SS Brendan Rodgers, JUCO LHP Brady Aiken, and Duke RHP Mike Matuella.  Rodgers is projected to hit for power and average from the right side of the plate and has the ability to stick at SS. Aiken is the 2014 #1 overall pick that would be an Astro right now were it not for concerns over an MRI revealed abnormalities in his pitching elbow; those results are controversial and may or may not scare other teams. Matuella is a bit of an unknown despite having played 2 years for an ACC school. He's 6'7 with a FB that runs 93-97 and has 2 above average to plus breaking balls and an average change so if he performs well this year he'll go early.

The Yankees currently have the 18th pick of the draft. That could go up if Miami, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Milwaukee, or Toronto sign a qualified free agent.  I wouldn't count on SD or TB signing a QFA but the others could. Or it's possible NY signs a QFA and their 1st rd pick disappears all together. If someone other than the Yankees sign David Robertson before the draft, they'll receive a compensatory pick to follow the first round, (probably in the low 30s after all of the QFA signings shake out). Or they could lose that two if they sign a second QFA.  SO MANY POSSIBILITIES!

A quick look at the board shows there's some college pitching in the neighborhood of New York's first pick. While I always want them to take the best player available, deep down I'd like to see a college starter taken early since starting pitching is the farm system's weakness in my opinion. They could go high schooler with upside with their comp pick.

My next comp board will likely be available in March after preliminary scouting reports will impact the inputs, (who are listed below), for my comp board. And if/when New York makes a significant signing this winter I'll weigh in with my thoughts on that.

Baseball America (Clint Longnecker - sub req'd)

ESPN.com (Keith Law and Chris Crawford - sub req'd)

Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel)

MLB.com (Jim Callis and Jon Mayo)

Draft to the Show (Chris Crawford)