Projecting the 2013 Yankee Budget

The New York Yankees are coming to a major crossroads next year.  They have repeatedly expressed their intentions to reduce their 2014 payroll to $189 million in order to avoid major luxury tax ramifications.  Their actions during this offseason could be very telling which path they will take..  The Yankees have approximately $157 million committed to it's 2013 player payroll.  That includes $141 million to players I think will make the 25-man roster, $7 million for the players that will round out the 40-man roster, and $9 million to players that will not be on the roster at all yet the Yankees still have some obligation to pay: AJ Burnett and Pedro Feliciano.

So, there are $157 million committed for 2013, which would have been the third highest payroll in 2012.  The problem is it only represents 31 players, meaning New York has *NINE* positions to fill: 2 starting pitchers, 2 catchers, 1 starting right fielder, 2 reserve outfielders, a reliever and a utility infielder.  There are five free agents from last year's team that I can see New York re-signing: Rivera, Kuroda, Pettitte, Ichiro, and Russell Martin.  If you re-sign them for the same amount of money that you paid them last year (let's give Ichiro $8 million), then that's another $46 million added to the payroll with four bench positions to fill.  Let's give each of those guys $1 million and suddenly you're looking at a payroll of $207 million.  That's a steep budget for a team wanting to shed payroll and it illustrates the team only has two options: stay the course with your huge player budget or start making some big sacrifices.  Here are some options:

• Instead of re-signing the five Yankee free agents listed above, find less valuable players similar to Boston's new catcher David Ross (who signed this week for 2 yrs and $6 million).  Maybe you still want to bring back Mo and Pettitte, which is understandable.  That leaves $22.5 million and if you cut that in half you still have $11.25 million to play with but you're going to be digging through the bargain bin for your starting right-fielder and starting catcher.
• Trade some expensive pieces like Rodriguez or Granderson.  I addressed the idea of trading A-Rod a couple weeks ago and denounced the idea out-right.  Even as an advocate for budget reduction, I think there's no way New York benefits from a trade like that in any way.  Granderson is a little different.  His contract is much more tradeable, despite his poor post-season performance.  New York could probably even get a decent prospect in the trade.  If Cashman could make a shrewd move and pick up a nice package for the Grandy-man, I'd be all for it.  The Yankees could move Brett Gardner over to CF and look for an option cheaper to Granderson and save $10 million or more.
• Package their top prospects for a major league ready piece ala Michael Pineda.  Take a player like Trevor Bauer, for instance.  There has been speculation that the young pitcher is available and could possibly had for two or three of New York's top prospects.  That would be adding a cost-effective stud pitcher to the starting rotation for the price of a couple players who are likely two or three years away from the Bronx.

If I'm going to make a bold prediction for this offseason, it's going to be a trade of a player like Granderson.  I don't think the Yanks will be big players in the free agent market.  I *hope* I'm right about that.  Would a Josh Hamilton make the 2013 Yankees better?  Absolutely.  But ownership has understandably made it clear that they've reached their limit and they refuse to flush their money down the luxury tax drain.  I applaud their position and think if New York could use their resources more efficiently, they could add many more championship flags to the top of Yankee Stadium.