Saturday, November 3, 2012

Baseball America Names Mason Williams Yankees' #1 Prospect

Baseball America has yet to release its Top 10 Yankees prospects list publicly, but Josh Norris of the Trentonian tweeted it out Friday.  The list looks like like this (my rankings are in parentheses):

  1. Mason Williams (3)
  2. Slade Heathcott (5)
  3. Gary Sanchez (2)
  4. Tyler Austin (1)
  5. Jose Campos (13)
  6. Brett Marshall (16)
  7. Angelo Gumbs (18)
  8. Manny Banuelos (6)
  9. Ty Hensley (4)
  10. Rafael de Paula (24)
There are a few notable surprises here for me.  I'll start with the top four: I understand that, in the eyes of most analysts, Williams, Sanchez, and Austin are all pretty close in terms of talent.  But Austin has unquestionably outperformed the other two thus far in his minor league career.  And this is the first time I've seen anyone include Heathcott in that group, much less put him above Sanchez and Austin.  I like Heathcott and believe he can justify his ranking here, but objective analysis says he's been outperformed by Sanchez and Austin so far.  It's probably not likely, but a Yankee outfield of Heathcott, Austin, and Williams in a few years is kind of a dream of mine.

The rest of the group is a little more surprising than the first four.  By virtue of his #5 ranking, Jose Campos is getting an incredible amount of credit for the 5 starts he made last year in Charleston, (4.01 ERA, 9.49 K/9, 1.14 WHIP).  The strikeout rate was impressive and the WHIP is above average but the ERA is obviously high.  BA is giving virtually no credence to the elbow injury that ended his season in May and he hasn't be heard from since.  Rafael de Paula's inclusion over Mark Montgomery seems like a bit of a stretch.  Montgomery is a dominant stud out of the pen and he has done it in AA while de Paula feasted on inferior talent in the Dominican Summer League.  Don't get me wrong...I HOPE de Paula is as good as his ranking suggests.  I just hesitate to give a lot of credit to his DSL stats.  If Yankee management puts him in at least high A to start 2013, this ranking could be validated.  And, I like Nik Turley over Brett Marshall.  Just my opinion there, although I feel their career performances back me up there.  Turley strikes a lot more batters out, (8.41 career K/9 compared to 7.03), gives up fewer runs, (3.06 ERA compared to 3.76), and allows fewer base runners (1.25 WHIP compared to 1.31).

Speaking of 2013, I'll update my rankings prior to the season once I see player assignments.  And there's always a good chance they'll be adding or subtracting players through trades.

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