The Problem with Knee Jerk Reactions

As we all know, watching the Yankees this postseason was difficult for their fans.  They were outscored 19 to 6 by Detroit in a devastating four game sweep in the ALCS.  New York never led at any point during the series, which is utterly mind-blowing.  What was really shocking was the anemic offense failed to support a fairly successful pitching staff, which is the exact opposite of what fans and analysts were expecting.  Robinson Cano went from being the hottest hitter on the planet to the worst hitter in postseason history.  Alex Rodriguez failed to live up to even the most minimal expectations and was benched three times.  Nick Swisher again faltered mightily in postseason play and probably ran himself straight out of the Bronx.  Curtis Granderson hit so poorly that team management plans to send him to an eye specialist!  These are troubling times in the Empire to say the least…

So now the team is faced with many questions and few answers.  Historically, Yankees ownership (i.e. you know who) made big moves after off-season disappointment; in 2001 after they lost to Arizona in the World Series the signed Jason Giambi to a 7 year, $120 million contract.  In 2003, they added Gary Sheffield, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown, and the mighty A-Rod.  Their 2004 postseason collapse against Boston led them to trade for Randy Johnson and sign Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright.  And in 2008, when New York failed to make the postseason for the first time since 1994 (when NO ONE made the postseason because it was cancelled), they spent $423.5 million on just THREE free agents: AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and CC Sabathia.  But current ownership has promised that today is a new day in the Empire.  They have committed to decreasing payroll to $189 million by 2014.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they currently have $119 million committed to just 8 players with 7 more players arbitration eligible.  Their big payroll will make rebuilding difficult if they’re serious about being under $189 million in 2014.

There are many routes they can go from here, and one big move that is being discussed heavily is trading Alex Rodriguez, who is owed a minimum of $119 million through 2017.  Unfortunately, any team trading for Rodriguez would probably require the Yankees include a minimum of 80 percent of the money owed to him; as someone who advocated the Yankees trading AJ Burnett last year, I fully oppose trading A-Rod in a similar money eating deal.  Signing someone to replace him would minimize any actual savings.  Instead of folding on A-Rod, I would double down and take my chances on an A-Rod bounce back in the next year or two.  His contract was actually front loaded and would theoretically be easier to trade starting in 2015.

I want to highlight two former moves as examples of what to do and what not to do.  First, remember the Nick Swisher trade in November 2008.  The Yankees gave a major league utility bat and two non-prospects for a young player whose prospect-star had diminished in 4-plus seasons in the big leagues.  It was a low-cost move for a player who would either be the team’s every day first baseman or platoon in right field.  But Mark Teixeira’s signing and Xavier Nady’s early-season injury made Swisher the team’s every-day right fielder and that’s where he has been ever since.  Swisher turned out to be an important player on a championship team.  If he had failed in right field, it would have cost the team very little because New York gave up basically nothing for him.  This is the type of transaction Brian Cashman is good at: low cost, high upside.  Other examples include signing Raul Ibanez in 2012, Eric Chavez in 2011 and 2012, and Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon in 2011.

Another trade to remember is the Granderson trade from December 2009.  Cashman traded the franchise’s number one prospect in Austin Jackson, as well as another top 100 prospect in Ian Kennedy and under-valued lefty reliever Phil Coke.  Despite his 84 home runs over the past two seasons, I would argue this trade failed us miserably.  Instead of having a young all-star center fielder in Jackson, another good starting option in Kennedy, and a solid bullpen cog in Coke, we have someone who struck out an astounding 364 times in the past two years.  The Yankees need to avoid overreacting to this year’s post season failure by trading for big name and sacrificing the future.  The farm system is very young, and a trade of prospects could put the system several years away from being able to help the big league club.

With the farm system in mind, I would suggest letting Swish walk and get a draft pick.  Even though I mentioned his trade as a positive previously, I think it's time for Nick to go.  The novelty of his big personality, always having fun attitude faded in a big way this postseason and he’s looking for a big pay day that the Yankees simply can’t afford if their serious about cutting their payroll.  I would also let Rafael Soriano walk and get a draft pick for him, too.  As good and important as he was this year, I would never advocate spending big money on relievers.  The great Rivera will probably be back next year to anchor the bullpen and David Aardsma will be ready to step into Soriano’s 7^th inning role.

This off-season will be very telling for the future of the New York Yankees.  Are they going to play the stero-typically big spender that they’ve been for fifteen years or are they going to stay the course and cut the payroll.  I believe they’ll stay the course and hope they do so.