State of the Yankees Farm System

At the beginning of 2012, the Yankees’ farm system appeared to be the healthiest it had been in years.  Baseball America released its organizational top 10 list on January 4 and it looked like this:

Name	Pos.	BA Top 100
Jesus Montero	C	6
Manny Banuelos	SP	29
Dellin Betances	SP	63
Gary Sanchez	C	81
Mason Williams	OF	85
Dante Bichette, Jr.	3B	-
Ravel Santana	OF	-
Austin Romine	C	-
J.R. Murphy	C	-
Slade Heathcott	OF	-

To have five players in a top 100 list when there are 30 clubs is really good.  And one of those players, Jesus Montero, was ranked 6^th overall.  Montero performed exceptionally well the September before (.328/.406/.590 in 61 at bats) and was slotted to be the big club’s every day DH in 2012 but in a surprising move, the Yankees trade Montero to Seattle for young All-Star pitcher Michael Pineda.  The trade seemed logical: trade from a position of strength (hitting) for a position that you could never have too much of (front line pitching).  For all his promise, Montero would be limited to DH’ing due to his inferior defense and the Yankees needed that DH position open for when it’s aging stars needed a day off from the field.  Meanwhile, Pineda looked like a future ace in his first year with the Mariners (3.74 ERA, 9.11 K/9, 1.10 WHIP).  But the trade that looked great on paper quickly lost its luster when Pineda pitched ineffectively in spring training, revealing he had a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder that would require season-ending surgery IN APRIL.  This was the start to the farm system’s year…

One silver lining to the Montero-Pineda trade was that New York also received talented young starter Jose Campos from Seattle.  Campos had pitched really well in three years of rookie ball and started the year in Charleston (low A).  Through five games, Campos pitched fairly well, despite his 4.01 ERA (9.49 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP in 24.2 innings).  But even silver linings fade and this one is no exception; Campos was put on the DL in May for elbow inflammation and didn’t pitch for the remainder of the 2012 season.  Manny Banuelos, New York’s best prospect once Montero was traded, also fell victim to injury that landed him on the DL twice, limited him to only 24 innings pitched for the year, and eventually required Tommy John surgery that will keep him out for all of 2013.  Other prospect such as Austin Romine missed significant time and Jake Cave, one of New York’s more interesting draftees from 2011, missed the entire year due to a knee injury.

Injuries like those to Banuelos, Campos, and others are an unfortunate but inevitable part of sports.  Another inevitable part of sports is performance regression, and three notable examples are Dellin Betances, Dante Bichette, Jr., and Ravel Santana.  Bichette and Santana both showed a lot promise in 2011.  Bichette was New York’s top pick in 2011 and, after signing quickly, had a great season in the GCL (.342/.445/.505 in 196 at bats).  His performance was a pleasant surprise and resulted in him getting consideration for Baseball America’s 2012 pre-season top 100 list.  Unfortunately, Bichette backslid in his second season (.248/.322/.331 in 471 at bats in low-A Charleston) and may no longer be considered a top 10 prospect in the organization (I have him at 17).  Santana struggled even worse in Staten Island (.216/.304/.289 in 218 at bats) after a great year in the GCL the prior year (.296/.361/.568 in 162 at bats).

The most notable and most glaring regression in 2012 was from Dellin Betances.  Coming into the year, it was thought Betances, as well as Banuelos, could be candidates for mid-season call-ups but Betances stumbled mightily out of the gate and never recovered.  After 16 shockingly poor starts in AAA, (6.39 ERA, 8.32 BB/9, and 1.88 WHIP), Betances was demoted to AA where the struggles continued, (6.51 ERA, 4.76 BB/9, 1.82 WHIP).  Betances is still considered very talented and still strikes out his fair share of batters (8.56 K/9 in AA and 8.42 K/9 in AA) but his wild-ness and ineffectiveness has cast a ton of doubt on his prospect status.  At his age, (he’ll turn 25 before the season starts next year), Dellin’s chances for figuring it out are dwindling.

For all the issues the system had this year, they had a few bright moments too.  Tyler Austin, who was ranked the 20^th best prospect in the organization by BA in January, launched himself into the top 100 prospects in all of baseball with a stellar offensive year (.322/.400/.560 in 413 at bats).  Tyler is ranked number 1 in my organizational rankings and will be no worse than 3^rd in every major poll between now and next spring training.  Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, and Slade Heathcott also elevated to the top of the organizational talent lists with excellent years of their own.

Overall, between trades, injuries, and regressions, New York’s farm system has suffered a pretty tough year and will probably rank in the lower third of Baseball America’s organization.  But, optimists like me will tell you “there’s nowhere to go but up”.  There are two ways to recover and that’s either through trades or drafts/IFA signings.  The Yankees will never be a team that reloads through trades, so it’s important for them to scout and draft well.  Some promising players drafted this year by New York include Ty Hensley, Austin Aune, Nick Goody, Corey Black, and Peter O’Brien.  They also signed a terrific young IFA class that includes Omar Luis Rodriguez, who pitched for Cuba in the 2010 World Junior Baseball Championship and was named to its all tournament team.  Luis Torrens and Alexander Palma were ranked #2 and #4, respectively, in Baseball America’s top 20 IFA pre-signing period list.