The Problem with Knee Jerk Reactions

As we all know, watching the Yankees this postseason was difficult for their fans.  They were outscored 19 to 6 by Detroit in a devastating four game sweep in the ALCS.  New York never led at any point during the series, which is utterly mind-blowing.  What was really shocking was the anemic offense failed to support a fairly successful pitching staff, which is the exact opposite of what fans and analysts were expecting.  Robinson Cano went from being the hottest hitter on the planet to the worst hitter in postseason history.  Alex Rodriguez failed to live up to even the most minimal expectations and was benched three times.  Nick Swisher again faltered mightily in postseason play and probably ran himself straight out of the Bronx.  Curtis Granderson hit so poorly that team management plans to send him to an eye specialist!  These are troubling times in the Empire to say the least…

So now the team is faced with many questions and few answers.  Historically, Yankees ownership (i.e. you know who) made big moves after off-season disappointment; in 2001 after they lost to Arizona in the World Series the signed Jason Giambi to a 7 year, $120 million contract.  In 2003, they added Gary Sheffield, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown, and the mighty A-Rod.  Their 2004 postseason collapse against Boston led them to trade for Randy Johnson and sign Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright.  And in 2008, when New York failed to make the postseason for the first time since 1994 (when NO ONE made the postseason because it was cancelled), they spent $423.5 million on just THREE free agents: AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and CC Sabathia.  But current ownership has promised that today is a new day in the Empire.  They have committed to decreasing payroll to $189 million by 2014.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they currently have $119 million committed to just 8 players with 7 more players arbitration eligible.  Their big payroll will make rebuilding difficult if they’re serious about being under $189 million in 2014.

There are many routes they can go from here, and one big move that is being discussed heavily is trading Alex Rodriguez, who is owed a minimum of $119 million through 2017.  Unfortunately, any team trading for Rodriguez would probably require the Yankees include a minimum of 80 percent of the money owed to him; as someone who advocated the Yankees trading AJ Burnett last year, I fully oppose trading A-Rod in a similar money eating deal.  Signing someone to replace him would minimize any actual savings.  Instead of folding on A-Rod, I would double down and take my chances on an A-Rod bounce back in the next year or two.  His contract was actually front loaded and would theoretically be easier to trade starting in 2015.

I want to highlight two former moves as examples of what to do and what not to do.  First, remember the Nick Swisher trade in November 2008.  The Yankees gave a major league utility bat and two non-prospects for a young player whose prospect-star had diminished in 4-plus seasons in the big leagues.  It was a low-cost move for a player who would either be the team’s every day first baseman or platoon in right field.  But Mark Teixeira’s signing and Xavier Nady’s early-season injury made Swisher the team’s every-day right fielder and that’s where he has been ever since.  Swisher turned out to be an important player on a championship team.  If he had failed in right field, it would have cost the team very little because New York gave up basically nothing for him.  This is the type of transaction Brian Cashman is good at: low cost, high upside.  Other examples include signing Raul Ibanez in 2012, Eric Chavez in 2011 and 2012, and Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon in 2011.

Another trade to remember is the Granderson trade from December 2009.  Cashman traded the franchise’s number one prospect in Austin Jackson, as well as another top 100 prospect in Ian Kennedy and under-valued lefty reliever Phil Coke.  Despite his 84 home runs over the past two seasons, I would argue this trade failed us miserably.  Instead of having a young all-star center fielder in Jackson, another good starting option in Kennedy, and a solid bullpen cog in Coke, we have someone who struck out an astounding 364 times in the past two years.  The Yankees need to avoid overreacting to this year’s post season failure by trading for big name and sacrificing the future.  The farm system is very young, and a trade of prospects could put the system several years away from being able to help the big league club.

With the farm system in mind, I would suggest letting Swish walk and get a draft pick.  Even though I mentioned his trade as a positive previously, I think it's time for Nick to go.  The novelty of his big personality, always having fun attitude faded in a big way this postseason and he’s looking for a big pay day that the Yankees simply can’t afford if their serious about cutting their payroll.  I would also let Rafael Soriano walk and get a draft pick for him, too.  As good and important as he was this year, I would never advocate spending big money on relievers.  The great Rivera will probably be back next year to anchor the bullpen and David Aardsma will be ready to step into Soriano’s 7^th inning role.

This off-season will be very telling for the future of the New York Yankees.  Are they going to play the stero-typically big spender that they’ve been for fifteen years or are they going to stay the course and cut the payroll.  I believe they’ll stay the course and hope they do so.

State of the Yankees Farm System

At the beginning of 2012, the Yankees’ farm system appeared to be the healthiest it had been in years.  Baseball America released its organizational top 10 list on January 4 and it looked like this:

Name	Pos.	BA Top 100
Jesus Montero	C	6
Manny Banuelos	SP	29
Dellin Betances	SP	63
Gary Sanchez	C	81
Mason Williams	OF	85
Dante Bichette, Jr.	3B	-
Ravel Santana	OF	-
Austin Romine	C	-
J.R. Murphy	C	-
Slade Heathcott	OF	-

To have five players in a top 100 list when there are 30 clubs is really good.  And one of those players, Jesus Montero, was ranked 6^th overall.  Montero performed exceptionally well the September before (.328/.406/.590 in 61 at bats) and was slotted to be the big club’s every day DH in 2012 but in a surprising move, the Yankees trade Montero to Seattle for young All-Star pitcher Michael Pineda.  The trade seemed logical: trade from a position of strength (hitting) for a position that you could never have too much of (front line pitching).  For all his promise, Montero would be limited to DH’ing due to his inferior defense and the Yankees needed that DH position open for when it’s aging stars needed a day off from the field.  Meanwhile, Pineda looked like a future ace in his first year with the Mariners (3.74 ERA, 9.11 K/9, 1.10 WHIP).  But the trade that looked great on paper quickly lost its luster when Pineda pitched ineffectively in spring training, revealing he had a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder that would require season-ending surgery IN APRIL.  This was the start to the farm system’s year…

One silver lining to the Montero-Pineda trade was that New York also received talented young starter Jose Campos from Seattle.  Campos had pitched really well in three years of rookie ball and started the year in Charleston (low A).  Through five games, Campos pitched fairly well, despite his 4.01 ERA (9.49 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP in 24.2 innings).  But even silver linings fade and this one is no exception; Campos was put on the DL in May for elbow inflammation and didn’t pitch for the remainder of the 2012 season.  Manny Banuelos, New York’s best prospect once Montero was traded, also fell victim to injury that landed him on the DL twice, limited him to only 24 innings pitched for the year, and eventually required Tommy John surgery that will keep him out for all of 2013.  Other prospect such as Austin Romine missed significant time and Jake Cave, one of New York’s more interesting draftees from 2011, missed the entire year due to a knee injury.

Injuries like those to Banuelos, Campos, and others are an unfortunate but inevitable part of sports.  Another inevitable part of sports is performance regression, and three notable examples are Dellin Betances, Dante Bichette, Jr., and Ravel Santana.  Bichette and Santana both showed a lot promise in 2011.  Bichette was New York’s top pick in 2011 and, after signing quickly, had a great season in the GCL (.342/.445/.505 in 196 at bats).  His performance was a pleasant surprise and resulted in him getting consideration for Baseball America’s 2012 pre-season top 100 list.  Unfortunately, Bichette backslid in his second season (.248/.322/.331 in 471 at bats in low-A Charleston) and may no longer be considered a top 10 prospect in the organization (I have him at 17).  Santana struggled even worse in Staten Island (.216/.304/.289 in 218 at bats) after a great year in the GCL the prior year (.296/.361/.568 in 162 at bats).

The most notable and most glaring regression in 2012 was from Dellin Betances.  Coming into the year, it was thought Betances, as well as Banuelos, could be candidates for mid-season call-ups but Betances stumbled mightily out of the gate and never recovered.  After 16 shockingly poor starts in AAA, (6.39 ERA, 8.32 BB/9, and 1.88 WHIP), Betances was demoted to AA where the struggles continued, (6.51 ERA, 4.76 BB/9, 1.82 WHIP).  Betances is still considered very talented and still strikes out his fair share of batters (8.56 K/9 in AA and 8.42 K/9 in AA) but his wild-ness and ineffectiveness has cast a ton of doubt on his prospect status.  At his age, (he’ll turn 25 before the season starts next year), Dellin’s chances for figuring it out are dwindling.

For all the issues the system had this year, they had a few bright moments too.  Tyler Austin, who was ranked the 20^th best prospect in the organization by BA in January, launched himself into the top 100 prospects in all of baseball with a stellar offensive year (.322/.400/.560 in 413 at bats).  Tyler is ranked number 1 in my organizational rankings and will be no worse than 3^rd in every major poll between now and next spring training.  Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, and Slade Heathcott also elevated to the top of the organizational talent lists with excellent years of their own.

Overall, between trades, injuries, and regressions, New York’s farm system has suffered a pretty tough year and will probably rank in the lower third of Baseball America’s organization.  But, optimists like me will tell you “there’s nowhere to go but up”.  There are two ways to recover and that’s either through trades or drafts/IFA signings.  The Yankees will never be a team that reloads through trades, so it’s important for them to scout and draft well.  Some promising players drafted this year by New York include Ty Hensley, Austin Aune, Nick Goody, Corey Black, and Peter O’Brien.  They also signed a terrific young IFA class that includes Omar Luis Rodriguez, who pitched for Cuba in the 2010 World Junior Baseball Championship and was named to its all tournament team.  Luis Torrens and Alexander Palma were ranked #2 and #4, respectively, in Baseball America’s top 20 IFA pre-signing period list.

Yankee Farm System - Postseason Top 25

Every day of baseball season when I get up, I check my phone for two things: the AL East Standings and to see how roughly 80 different minor leaguers performed the day before. Some might think that analyzing the stats of 80-something players, 90% of which will never don the pinstripes, is a waste of time. And maybe they're right, but then again 90% of blogs could be viewed the same way, so there is that...

A few months ago, on a day that I apparently had too much time on my hands, I developed a spreadsheet to "grade" prospects based on both subjective opinion and objective statistics. For the subjective, I assign an A, B, or grade to who I believe are the 50 best prospects. Objectively, I score the prospects in three areas: how they've performed statistically in the most recent season, how they've performed over their career, and what level they're at in comparison to their age. Performance stats are weighted based on the player's position and, for recent season, which league or leagues the prospect played in. Each score is based on a scale of 100 - 60 and are weighted to develop a final score. The grades are weighted most heavily toward the age/level relationship, then career performance, then recent season performance.

I could go on and on but I think you get the point. So, without further delay, here are the top 25 the way I see them.

Rank	Name	Position	Grade	Fin. Score	Age/Level	Season	Career
1	Tyler Austin	RF	A	94	92	96	98
2	Gary Sanchez	C	A	92	97	84	85
3	Mason Williams	CF	A	91	92	85	92
4	Ty Hensley	SP	A	88	82	97	97
5	Slade Heathcott	RF	A	86	88	91	80
6	Manny Banuelos	SP	B	96	98	100	91
7	Mark Montgomery	RP	B	95	92	100	100
8	Ramon Flores	LF	B	90	94	91	80
9	J.R. Murphy	C	B	88	95	79	77
10	Corban Joseph	2B	B	88	88	95	87
11	Austin Romine	C	B	86	89	83	82
12	Zoilo Almonte	RF	B	85	87	86	79
13	Jose Campos	SP	B	85	86	85	83
14	Ben Gamel	CF	B	84	85	77	84
15	Nik Turley	SP	B	84	84	89	82
16	Brett Marshall	SP	B	83	90	72	72
17	Dante Bichette, Jr.	3B	B	83	87	68	81
18	Angelo Gumbs	2B	B	83	87	75	79
19	Cito Culver	SS	B	80	87	65	70
20	Ravel Santana	CF	B	80	81	67	81
21	Nick Goody	RP	C	95	91	100	100
22	Greg Bird	1B	C	90	83	100	100
23	Jordan Cote	SP	C	90	83	100	100
24	Rafael de Paula	SP	C	81	69	100	100
25	Austin Aune	SS	C	79	82	75	75

The Yankees have five grade A prospects: Austin, Williams, Sanchez, Hensley, and Heathcott. Admittedly, Hensley's status as a grade A prospect is very subjective but I feel like his pre-draft hype and the glimpses of talent he provided while in the GCL justify the lofty status for a rookie. Heathcott probably would have been considered more of a bust than an elite prospect 24 months ago, but the success he's had in Charleston and Tampa the past two years has revived his career and I look forward to watching him in 2013. Last year Banuelos, Campos, Bichette, and Santana would have been grade A prospects but the struggles of Bichette and Santana and the injuries to Banuelos and Campos drops them down to grade B prospects. Campos, Bichette, and Santana have a chance to bounce back to grade A status with positive years next year.  Unfortunately Banuelos will have to wait until 2014 to get his crack at it due to his elbow injury.

The trio of Austin, Williams, and Sanchez will no doubt make all top 100 prospect lists from now through the beginning of next season. The surprise here is that, while Williams and Sanchez are generally ranked ahead of Austin, I put Tyler Austin number one. Look at the career stats: .331 batting average, .969 OPS, and a .478 BB/K ratio. Between Austin, Williams, and Heathcott, the Yankees have a great young core of outfield prospects; the law of averages tells you that at least one of these guys should make it to Yankee Stadium, and this amateur analyst will put his money on Austin.

What separates the grade B and grade C prospects is experience. All of the grade C prospects are in their first full year of professional ball and the five listed above should all find their way to Charleston at some point next year. Behind Mark Montgomery, who would be a grade A prospect if he were not a reliever, Nick Goody has the best chance of making it to the Bronx the fastest of anybody in this group of 25. Don't be surprised if he's playing in New York next year, if nothing else as a September call up.

I welcome all comments and criticism. If anything, the criticism may help me refine my system. Check back around the end of March for my pre-season 2013 rankings. God bless and Go Yankees